OPEC producers will need to pump more oil than expected to meet demand during the northern winter because of supply problems outside the cartel, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today.
Oilfield disruptions in North America and the North Sea, and continued strong consumption growth, means demand for OPEC oil in the first quarter 2005 will be 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) higher than previously expected at 28.6 million bpd, the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report.
The IEA also revised its forecast "call" on OPEC's crude by 300,000 bpd for the second quarter this year - a period when OPEC fears prices could fall as demand declines following the northern winter.
OPEC has already agreed to withdraw one million bpd of supply from January 1st to protect prices.
OPEC's production cuts have helped push US crude to a seven-week high above $49 a barrel as a cold front threatens to test low heating fuel stocks.
Ministers meet on January 30th to decide whether to cut production quotas ahead of the second quarter.
The IEA raised its forecast of global demand growth for 2005 by 60,000 bpd to 1.44 million bpd, and also raised its estimate of growth in the fourth quarter 2004 by 200,000 bpd as US consumption outpaced expectations.
Oil prices rose 34 per cent last year as fast growth in the United States and China pushed up global demand by 2.6 million bpd or 3.3 per cent, the highest rate since 1976.
Total global stocks rose 1.4 million bpd, or 42 million barrels in November, led by increases in the Pacific region, the IEA said. End-November stocks stood 81 million barrels above previous year levels, the Paris-based agency said.