Northern Ireland's political institutions tonight appear to be on a course for suspension with leaders in the North expressing widely differing views on what should happen to Sinn Féin.
As the Taoiseach Mr Ahern and the British Prime Minister Mr Tony Blair meet this evening, it is understood that both Dublin and London governments are ready to agree a suspension to allow a six-week review period.
Arriving at Downing Street, Mr Ahern said he wished to see the Northern Ireland Assembly continue to function, but recognised that suspension might prove necessary if trust had broken down between the parties.
He said: "I would like to see the institutions work. The position of the Irish government is we want to see the institutions work. We don't want to see suspension.
"But if there is not trust between the parties, then they can't work. If that trust is temporarily gone, it is the obligation on the two governments under the agreement to manage the situation in the interests of the people of Northern Ireland and the interests of the people of the island of Ireland."
The meeting was not expected to finish until 10 p.m. at the earliest and the Northern Secretary Dr John Reid said an announcement was unlikely tonight. Sinn Féin is due to meet Mr Blair in London tomorrow. But it is understood discussions have already taken place about maintaining a political impetus to the peace process in the absence of an Executive in the North.
With the First Minister and the Deputy First Minister completely at odds over the exclusion of Sinn Féin, precedent suggests the Dr Reid will suspend the institutions before the Ulster Unionists bring them down. The institutions have been suspended three times previously and intensive negotiations followed in which concessions were made to both sides of the North's political divide.
Already there are tentative signs that this may happens again. Suspension will mean a return to direct rule but with Irish Government officials more familiar with the workings of the North-South ministerial bodies than their Westminster counterparts such a move could result in an indirect form of joint-rule, which would infuriate unionists.
Westminster is considering appointing temporary ministers to replace those displaced from the power-sharing Executive in the event of suspension. One source said this evening: "There is a huge job to be done in establishing trust between the parties but we will not be abandoning the Agreement. We believe it can work, has worked and that it will work again. We've just reached a critical point in the process where we need to iron out fundamental problems."
First Minister and UUP leader Mr David Trimble is urging the expulsion of Sinn Féin from the Executive and yesterday told Mr Blair that he had one week to act or else his party would quit.
But SDLP leader and Deputy First Minister, Mr Mark Durkan, today ruled out supporting a motion to exclude Sinn Féin and said a suspension was the most likely option for Dr Reid.
One option is to dissolve the Assembly and call elections. But this will not find favour among nationalists, republicans and the Irish Government at this time; and will not solve unionist demands to sanction Sinn Fein for what they perceive to be a breach of the Mitchell principles on peace and democracy.
Dr Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist ministers have already resigned with effect from Friday and the UUP will follow suit next Tuesday if Sinn Fein are not suspended. But that seems unlikely, especially as nothing has been proven against the party and its administrative officer, Mr Denis Donaldson, who has been charged with gathering information likely to be of use to terrorists.
But one thing looks certain, Northern politicians are likely to be redundant - at least temporarily - by early next week.
"It's like arranging deck chairs on the Titanic," said one Assembly member today, reflecting what many - both inside and outside Stormont fear: that power-sharing could sink without trace.
The atmosphere at Stormont today was tinged with apprehension, uncertainty and even resignation.
One Stormont worker, a veteran of three previous suspensions, said many members of staff were worried about their futures. "The newer recruits are worried because they have never experienced anything like this before. But we have been living with this since day one."
"There is an unreal atmosphere here. The car park is packed, so most people must still be here but the real business is taking place in London and Dublin," he said.
Additional reporting PA