YANGON – Burma will hold its first parliamentary elections in two decades on November 7th, state media said yesterday, ending speculation over the timing of a poll criticised by rights groups as a sham to entrench military power.
The United States, Britain and human rights groups have said the elections would be illegitimate if the military junta denies a role to thousands of political opponents now in prison, including detained Nobel Peace Prize-winner Aung San Suu Kyi.
The election takes place about a week before Ms Suu Kyi is expected to be freed from house arrest on November 13th. Her National League for Democracy (NLD) party, which won by a landslide in the last elections in 1990 only to be denied power by the military, has refused to register with the authorities in protest at what it called “unjust” election laws.
Forty parties have registered to take part in the first civilian government in almost half a century in the reclusive, army-ruled country of 48 million people. But several big parties said the election timing undermined their ability to raise funds.
Many diplomats and analysts see the polls as intended to strengthen the military’s power under the guise of civilian rule in an attempt to lure investment to the resource-rich country nestled strategically between booming China and India.
“It’s essentially a costume change,” said Jacob Ramsay, senior analyst for Southeast Asia Pacific for British-based security consultants Control Risks.
A dozen parties registered with the election commission are believed to be proxies of the military, which will retain control of key ministries and enjoy a 25 per cent quota of parliamentary seats under a new constitution.
The armed forces chief will be more senior than the president. There are no indications an estimated 2,000 political prisoners will be released before or after the elections.
“The government has been working hard in the past months to disqualify or marginalise all possible contenders who might form an opposition to its plan to essentially parachute its generals into civilian roles,” said Mr Ramsay.
Ms Suu Kyi has spent 15 of the past 21 years in detention and remains under house arrest. Even if she were freed, she is barred from running because of her criminal record as a political detainee and because her late husband was a foreigner.
Her NLD party was dissolved this year after deciding not to register for the polls.
The National Democratic Force (NDF), a renegade faction of the NLD opposed by Ms Suu Kyi, is running to challenge the junta’s proxies but is not expected to gain traction without her.
NDF chairman Than Nyein said the election timing was unfair because it required the submission of a list of candidates for parliamentary seats by August 30th, a deadline it cannot meet.
“Submitting the list by the end of August is out of the question,” he said. “Before we submit the list, we have so many things to do, including raising funds. How can we carry out these things in about 20 days?” Only 11 of 40 registered parties have submitted lists of candidates, according to the election commission.
The Union Democracy Party, another major opposition party, has threatened to withdraw from the elections if there are signs of foul play by the ruling military in the run-up to the polls.
“We are not ready yet at all,” UDP chairman Thein Htay said. “We are still trying to set up committees in the provinces. It is quite clear they purposely planned it this way to cause inconvenience.”
Some parties also accuse the regime’s military intelligence unit of spying on and trying to intimidate their members.
Political analysts and diplomats, however, say the election could mark a turning point which, over the longer term, delivers a gradual transition of power to a civilian government free of military control.
They add that this would be an evolutionary process rather than a junta-inspired shift. – (Reuters)