Tadic re-election may precipitate crisis in Serbia

Serbia: Widespread relief at the re-election of Serbia's pro-EU president Boris Tadic was tempered yesterday by fears that the…

Serbia:Widespread relief at the re-election of Serbia's pro-EU president Boris Tadic was tempered yesterday by fears that the country's coalition government could crumble under the strain of internal divisions and Kosovo's imminent declaration of independence.

Mr Tadic's narrow victory over hardline nationalist Tomislav Nikolic on Sunday was welcomed by most of Europe and by Serbs who want to join the EU, but it also exposed a deep split in Serb society and between the president and prime minister Vojislav Kostunica.

Mr Kostunica refused to endorse Mr Tadic before the vote, and condemns his determination to pursue EU membership despite the bloc's support for Kosovo's independence, which the region's ethnic-Albanian leaders are likely to declare within weeks.

Despite leading a coalition that includes Mr Tadic's party, the prime minister holds a position on Kosovo closer to that of Mr Nikolic, who believes Belgrade should not deal with any entity that recognises a sovereign Kosovo.

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Mr Kostunica also comes close to Mr Nikolic in advocating stronger ties with Russia as a way to balance prickly relations with the EU, and he recently supported the sale of Serbia's state oil firm to a Kremlin-controlled company for what Mr Tadic's allies called a "humiliating" price. Analysts say the deal was largely motivated by Mr Kostunica's gratitude to Moscow for staunchly opposing Kosovar independence.

"This is a Serbia which is going straight to the European Union," Mr Tadic (50) told supporters yesterday, after his win over Mr Nikolic by about 51 per cent to 48 per cent was confirmed. "This is a victory for the whole of Serbia and its democracy."

Mr Kostunica's party offered lukewarm congratulations to Mr Tadic, saying: "It is important that the elections have passed in a peaceful manner considering that Kosovo could soon proclaim unilateral independence."

Zoran Ostojic, of the strongly pro-western Liberal Democratic Party, said Serbs had "voted for European integration and a better life . . . Now we expect Tadic to take steps against Kostunica's anti-European government."

A showdown is looming over how to react to Kosovo's declaration of independence and the EU's planned deployment of an 1,800-strong police and justice mission to oversee it.

It could come to a head this week, when Brussels has offered to sign a pact with Belgrade on closer ties and visa-free travel in the EU for Serbs.

Daniel McLaughlin

Daniel McLaughlin

Daniel McLaughlin is a contributor to The Irish Times from central and eastern Europe