TAIWAN:Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) defied expectations that graft allegations would lead to a heavy defeat by the opposition Kuomintang in crucial mayoral elections this weekend.
The DPP, which favours more independence for the island, lost in the capital city's mayoral race on Saturday, but by a far lower margin than forecast, and it managed to win in its traditional stronghold, Taiwan's second city, Kaohsiung.
All-out victories for the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang (KMT), would have been a tremendous boost for the party's prospects in parliamentary elections next year and the 2008 presidential poll.
This would have led to a thawing of relations with China, which considers Taiwan a maverick province ever since Chiang Kai-shek's KMT lost the civil war with Mao Zedong's communists and fled to the island in 1949.
The elections were seen as a no-confidence vote in president Chen Shui-bian, who has been fighting corruption allegations.
His wife was indicted last month on embezzlement charges and will go to court next week, and prosecutors said only presidential immunity has saved Mr Chen from a similar fate.
Beijing has threatened war if the island of 23 million tries to declare formal independence, while the US has pledged to defend Taiwan against invasion.
Although the KMT is communist China's arch-rival, these days the KMT leadership wants more trade with China and supports reunification, compared with a more antagonistic relationship between the DPP and China.
The KMT has been trying to regain the presidency since losing the office to Mr Chen in 2000 and 2004.
The mayoral election result gives Taiwan's embattled president some breathing space and also puts new pressure on China to start fresh dialogue with the ruling party.
"The KMT did not win and the DPP did not lose, this means a reflection time for both parties," said David Huang, an analyst at National Taiwan University. "The landslide result didn't happen and this creates uncertainty over the presidential elections in 2008."
Taipei mayoral candidate Frank Hsieh lost to Hau Lung-bin of the KMT, which already held the mayoralty. However, Mr Hsieh managed to win nearly 41 per cent of the vote, a much better showing than forecast.
In Kaohsiung, the DPP's Chen Chu beat nationalist candidate Huang Chun-ying by little more than 1,000 votes and ballot boxes have been sealed for a recount.
"The KMT believed that by attacking corruption they would win, but it's not enough, they overplayed the scandal issues," said Wang Hsing-chung, an analyst at Taiwan Thinktank.
Analysts believe the vote in Kaoshiung may have swung in the DPP's favour after the ruling party claimed KMT campaign workers had distributed cash to some voters.
"This tactic of making these accusations may have influenced 3 per cent of the voters, which is enough in this case," said KMT spokesman Wu Hsiu-Kuang. "We should have won Kaoshiung."
"The DPP didn't lose, that's for sure, but this wasn't a win, either, as they lost Taipei by a large margin," said Shane Lee, a political science professor at Chang Jung University in Tainan.
"If they had lost Kaohsiung, they wouldn't get up again for a long time. The Kaohsiung people realised this crisis."