The Dail takes a break next week - bank holiday and elections - then returns for three or four weeks before a long summer recess to facilitate the building of the Leinster House extension. By the time deputies return in the autumn, the halfway point of this 28th Dail will be upon them. Provided scuds from the Flood and Moriarty Tribunals, which resume public hearings in 10 and 13 days respectively, do no more than continue to destabilise the Government, the coming months will be a time for taking stock.
The junior partners, the PDs, want to renegotiate the programme for Government to take account of changing circumstances, in particular the extra money in the exchequer. The Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, will be closely studying the results from next week's elections, weighing up the effects of the sleaze and Haughey factors and working at any slide in FF support. As usual the North overrides everything.
But in all this stock-taking will Bertie reshuffle his Cabinet? Probably not. The Taoiseach dislikes offending anyone and reshuffles, no matter how necessary or sensitively handled, always annoy some. Developments later this month, however, may create openings at both senior and junior ministerial level. If the Government appoints a Cabinet minister to Brussels, possibly Brian Cowen or Dermot Ahern, there will be a vacancy, but instead of one of the junior ministers being promoted, there is a belief in Leinster House that Brian Lenihan or Eoin Ryan may be the chosen ones. They are young, able and removed from the old Haughey wing of the party.
Backbenchers also feel that even if no vacancy arises, a reshuffle would be a good thing. It has been suggested to Quidnunc that since Cowen so obviously dislikes Health, Ahern could be moved in there, John O'Donoghue take over Social Welfare and Cowen move to Justice. It's just a scenario. Bertie may do nothing. As junior minister Noel Treacy is likely to be elected MEP for Connaught/Ulster, a vacancy will arise there which may create some movement. Whatever happens, at either level, it is highly unlikely that anyone will be sacked. It's not Bertie's style.