Middle East:Recent history suggests Israel's plans to reward the moderate stance of President Abbas may amount to little, writes Peter Hirschbergin Jerusalem.
Reward the moderates and punish the extremists. That, in a nutshell, is the policy that Israel plans to adopt toward the Palestinians now that Hamas has seized control of the Gaza Strip.
By significantly improving the lives of the two million Palestinians living on the West Bank, where the more moderate Fatah movement is dominant, while maintaining a choke-hold on the more impoverished Gaza Strip, home to about 1.2 million Palestinians and where Hamas is now in the ascendancy, Israel is hoping it can convince the Palestinian people to turn their backs on the more radical Islamic movement.
After Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, of Fatah, dismissed the Hamas-led unity government last week and set up an emergency government - a move rejected by Hamas - Israeli officials hailed the step, saying it created new opportunities for renewing peace efforts. "We support the moderates, and Israel will be able to work openly to support the moderates financially and in the security realm," said Miri Eisen, a spokeswoman for prime minister Ehud Olmert.
Israel has already spoken of transferring to Mr Abbas hundreds of millions of dollars in customs duties it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority and which it froze after Hamas, which refuses to recognise the Jewish state, came to power in 2006. There has also been talk of easing stifling travel restrictions in the West Bank. By such measures in the West Bank, Israel is hoping it can send a clear message to the Palestinians - moderation pays.
But does it? Past experience might suggest otherwise. Mr Olmert, like his predecessor Ariel Sharon, has been stingy when it comes to making concessions to Mr Abbas, especially with regard to the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails and the lifting of travel restrictions.
Earlier this year, Mr Olmert told the Palestinian leader he would remove some of the roadblocks across the West Bank set up to keep suicide bombers out of Israel. But they stayed in place and Mr Abbas lost more points with his own people, his image as a leader unable to deliver enhanced.
Israel's unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in August 2005 sent a message to the Palestinians that moderation doesn't pay. Israel pulled out of the coastal strip without negotiating with the Palestinians, in a move that seemed to undermine the position of moderate Palestinian leaders. Hamas, which had steadfastly refused to talk to Israel and had continued to carry out armed attacks, seemed vindicated: Israel was withdrawing from Gaza.
Despite his past record, Mr Olmert says he is determined to bolster Mr Abbas. During his visit this week to Washington, where he discussed the situation in Gaza with President George Bush, the Israeli leader told journalists he viewed the Hamas coup as a "big opportunity" - an opportunity to renew talks with Mr Abbas now that he and Fatah have severed ties with the Islamic movement.
But if Israel is seen to be assisting Fatah, this "boost the moderates" policy runs the risk of cementing the image of Mr Abbas and his party as lackeys of Israel. Hamas leaders have often accused their Fatah counterparts of being western stooges. In the past two weeks, they have gone further, accusing them of being collaborators with Israel - the ultimate insult.
The idea of stationing an international force in Gaza, and of Egypt and Jordan playing a much more interventionist role in Gaza and the West Bank respectively, has also been raised. But these scenarios seem far-fetched, with neither western nor Arab states in any way predisposed to sending their troops to police the impoverished, Hamas-run Gaza Strip.
Israel can be expected to exploit the new reality in Gaza to strengthen the notion that there are now two distinct Palestinian entities - an "enemy state" in the coastal strip and a rational partner in the West Bank.
Already there is talk of reviving the idea of an interim Palestinian state with temporary borders, but only in the West Bank. In a phone conversation yesterday with newly appointed Palestinian prime minister Salaam Fayad, Israeli foreign minister Tzippi Livni said the establishment of a government without Hamas could pave the way for the renewal of peace talks. Ms Livni, clearly, had the "West Bank" government in mind.
It seems unlikely, however, that any Palestinian leader would attend talks premised on separating the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
However great the rift between Fatah and Hamas, as a result of the Islamic movement's violent takeover of Gaza, neither movement is about to countenance a severing of the two entities.