Ian McShane, managing director of MRBI Ltd, assesses the trends for all parties from the national and constituency polls.
The election has finally been called, and the longest "unofficial" campaign of recent times gives way to the real thing. Between now and polling day on May 17th, a number of nationwide Irish Times/MRBI opinion polls will be conducted, designed to track key shifts in voting intentions as the party manifestos are launched, and public opinion becomes more focused.
In order to place the forthcoming polls within a meaningful context, however, it is perhaps worth conducting a brief review of the results of the various opinion polls which have been carried out since the last election in June 1997 to the present day.
The accompanying graphic sets down the party support figures registered at each survey since September 1997. It should be noted that, in order to counteract the propensity of polls to overestimate support levels for Fianna Fáil, a statistical method of readjusting party support levels, based on the results of the last MRBI election-day poll, was introduced from January 2000.
Taking these adjustments into account, some clear trends have nevertheless emerged over the years and have enabled us to identify the key measures to monitor over the next three weeks.
The first point to note is that the Fianna Fáil party enjoyed a prolonged honeymoon period following the 1997 election, with support levels increasing in all but one poll between September 1997 and October 1998. The party then experienced a marked drop-off in support during early to mid-1999 due in the main to two factors: the increasingly damning revelations from the tribunals, and the Government's perceived mishandling of the Sheedy affair.
While the latter factors can be said to have precipitated the rather sudden decrease in support for the party, it is also true that the honeymoon period was likely to have drifted naturally towards a more gradual close anyhow - even the more optimistic Fianna Fáil strategists would have known that an actual election result of 50 per cent-plus for the party would never have materialised in reality.
Of greater consequence for the party, however, is the fact that, since the settling down of support levels during 1999 and early 2000, it has been generating remarkably consistent poll results. Thus, between June 2000 and February 2002 the party has registered first-preference support levels of between 40 and 42 per cent, with February's figure of 42 per cent representing Fianna Fáil's average rating over the last two years.
In tandem with its broad support levels, Bertie Ahern as party leader and Taoiseach has been sailing high in terms of his personal satisfaction ratings. Even at his lowest rating of 55 points in September 2000, in the aftermath of the O'Flaherty nomination debacle, Ahern was still significantly out-scoring all other party leaders.
He will be more than comfortable leading his party into the election in the knowledge that an average two-thirds of the electorate has been satisfied with his performance over the last two years.
A similar analysis of the poll findings from the PDs' perspective indicates that while Fianna Fáil's post-election ratings soared, the junior coalition partners were recording support levels of just 2-3 points, with some commentators at the time cautioning that the party risked becoming subsumed within Fianna Fáil altogether. Since April 2000 the party has consolidated its support at a nationwide average of four percentage points, with Mary Harney's satisfaction levels as Tánaiste average around the low to mid-50s.
As has been well documented by this stage, Fine Gael has witnessed a steady erosion of support over recent years, with its two-year average standing at just 22 percentage points. The party has been under particular pressure in the Dublin area, where last February's poll showed it to be vying for third position along with Sinn Féin and the Green Party, behind both Fianna Fáil and Labour.
The party's results have not been helped by the fact that its leader, Michael Noonan, elected on the "dream team" ticket along with deputy leader Jim Mitchell with a view to reviving the party's fortunes, has failed to connect with the general public. Noonan's last personal satisfaction rating of 29 points was the lowest for a Fine Gael leader in eight years and dipped to just 23 per cent in the Dublin and Leinster regions.
Having said that, talk of a Fine Gael "meltdown" (presumably meant to suggest double-digit seat losses) may well prove to be melodramatic. An analysis of the many published constituency polls conducted by MRBI for TG4 and Thomas Crosbie Publications provides some useful insights into the standing of Fine Gael candidates on the ground.
A consolidation of first preference voting intentions as measured by way of a simulated ballot paper across 16 constituencies (two of which were surveyed by Irish Marketing Surveys for RTE's Prime Time and the Irish Independent) indicates a first-preference figure for Fine Gael of 27per cent, with 43 per cent for Fianna Fáil, 10 per cent for Labour, 6 per cent for Sinn Féin, 3 per cent for the PDs, 3 per cent for the Green Party and 9 per cent for Independents.
When the opinion poll findings are compared with the actual 1997 election outcome for the same 16 constituencies, the results indicate an increase of two percentage points for Fianna Fáil, a decrease of two points for Fine Gael, a drop of three points for the PDs, and an increase of 3 points for Sinn Féin.
Many of these polls have indeed shown that Fine Gael may well be under pressure for the final seat. As the consolidated party support figure indicates, however, Fine Gael's predicament is due in part to inadequate vote-management strategies, something which will undoubtedly be addressed during the election campaign proper.
A note of caution: the 16 constituency consolidated figures include just two in Dublin, and cannot therefore be taken to be representative of the nation as a whole.
In summary, our "poll of polls" indicates that, as we enter the true 2002 election campaign, Fianna Fáil on 42 per cent is three points ahead of its 1997 election performance. It will be recalled that the party's exceptional vote-management strategy in 1997 produced a disproportionate yield of seats to first-preference votes. A first-preference vote of 42 per cent on election day would, however, leave the party in a strong position to improve upon its numbers in the Dáil, if only marginally. In terms of key indicators between now and the election, strategists will be cognisant of the fact that party support levels have traditionally declined during the course of the actual campaign; any dip below 40 per cent will be viewed by party headquarters with alarm.
Given the quite localised strengths of the PDs, they might argue that the party's positioning in national opinion polls is of less relevance to them than it is to other parties. For example, the party secured just four seats with a 5 per cent share of the national vote in 1997, but produced 10 seats on a similar share in 1992. They will nevertheless be looking to maintain their current average rating of about 4 per cent in the remaining opinion polls if they are to hold out any hope of retaining their four-seat total.
Notwithstanding the fact that Fine Gael candidates on the ground may be performing more favourably than their total party support figures indicate, the party has serious issues to address in the greater Dublin region, and should be aiming to significantly increase its poll performance in the capital from its current (unadjusted) low of just 10 per cent.
Labour is tipped to pick up a number of additional seats in the election. Its February support figure of 12 points is in line with the combined Labour-Democratic Left share of 13 per cent garnered in 1997, and the party would feel more comfortable if it can add just a couple of points to its total in the coming weeks.
As with the PDs, Sinn Féin's effortsare likely to be concentrated in specific constituencies. Its solid growth in support over the last number of years is heavily (but by no means exclusively) driven by the "youth" (18-24 yrs) vote, and their greatest challenge lies in mobilising this notoriously difficult-to-reach segment. A nationwide vote of 8 per cent, as per the last two polls, would leave the party in a strong position to achieve its stated target of three seats.
Finally, the Green Party under new leader Trevor Sargent will also be aiming to maintain its nationwide standing of about 5 per cent, a figure which in theory could deliver additional seats. The party will be particularly interested in tracking its performance in Dublin where it has the greatest chance of making gains, and the Munster region encompassing the Cork city area.