Faced with weeks of Opposition disruption, the Government decided to get the by-elections over with early, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
In informal discussions among Fianna Fáil Ministers yesterday morning before the weekly Cabinet meeting, it became clear that the Government would accept the Opposition challenge and call the by-elections early.
On Friday, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, said he believed both polls should take place after Easter, saying that to hold them before then would disrupt the Dáil and "quite frankly would be irresponsible". On Monday, the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, also said both polls should take place after Easter.
However, the Taoiseach was persuaded of the case for early by-elections in the last few days. He faced Fine Gael and Labour threats to spend the next few weeks disrupting Dáil business if the Government opposed their plans to hold the polls early.
This type of disruption is a well-used Opposition tactic. It involves the regular calling of unnecessary votes, demands for a "quorum" of deputies to be present in the Chamber and the refusal of "pairing" arrangements to Ministers away on official business.
Such undergraduate manipulation of antiquated procedures is tedious for most deputies, but has the effect of seriously disrupting the Taoiseach's own political schedule, requiring him to be in or near the Dáil chamber for long periods in case he is required.
Mr Ahern, according to Government sources, wondered why he should suffer weeks of this if the Government has a high chance of losing the by-elections anyway, as every government has done on every occasion since 1982.
Postponement would not improve the candidate situation either. Fianna Fáil has already suffered its candidate debacles. Meath candidate Mr Tommy Reilly withdrew after questions were raised over his involvement in a land deal with Mr Frank Dunlop; Mr Charlie McCreevy junior resisted all pressure to run to replace his father.
The two late-chosen candidates - and the Kildare North candidate will only be selected tomorrow night - might benefit from a few extra weeks on the campaign trail, but not much, they reasoned. So yesterday morning the Taoiseach and his Ministers decided to get it over with. The two by-elections will take place in just 24 days, on March 11th.
Some Government sources claimed yesterday that by giving in so enthusiastically to Opposition demands they deprived the Opposition of weeks of grandstanding, and may even have caught them by surprise.
This seems unlikely, seeing as Fine Gael and Labour have had their candidates chosen for some time, and have already launched their campaigns.
The results themselves will give very limited information about national political trends. Local issues feature strongly in by-elections and voters tend to give a more anti-government message than usual. Nevertheless, the outcome will have an important effect on party morale and on public perception. For Fianna Fáil to win either one would be portrayed as a huge success.
It would be the first government by-election win in 23 years and would be hailed by them as proof of the recovery begun last autumn. To lose both would not be seen as a disgrace, unless the party received a particularly low vote.
Similarly, Fine Gael would seize on victory in either as evidence of recovery. A double-loss, however, would be bad for morale.
Labour's leader Mr Pat Rabbitte faces an important national party conference in May at which he hopes to heal differences over his electoral strategy of seeking a pre-election alliance with Fine Gael. A respectable performance in both would help him, a win would be a huge boost.
Most important for both Fine Gael and Labour will be how well their candidates' votes transfer to each other. Strong transfer rates would encourage those in both parties arguing for a pre-election pact ahead of the next general election. The Progressive Democrats will be pleased if they build the profile of Senator Kate Walsh in Kildare North, and some of them even dream of challenging for the seat.
Sinn Féin in Meath hope their candidate, Cllr Joe Reilly, who finished sixth in the five-seat constituency last time, will get close. The Green Party is contesting both, but having been well short of the vote required to challenge for seats in 2002, must be hoping to build candidates' profiles for the future.
If early polls - no matter how questionable their accuracy - show one runner emerging as the leading anti-Government candidate, this often has the effect of causing a stampede of voters towards this contender. In the case of Mr Reilly, he may suffer from the difficulty Sinn Féin has in attracting large numbers of transfers.
However, in Kildare North, independent Ms Catherine Murphy is seen by the main political parties as a potentially strong candidate. The former Democratic Left and former Labour candidate has a strong local base around Leixlip.