CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Dublin North-West: Noel Ahern is no slouch when it comes to garnering votes writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter
The Taoiseach is looking to his brother to help retain the party's two seats in the redrawn Dublin North West constituency.
The outgoing Fianna Fáil TDs, Mr Noel Ahern and Mr Pat Carey, will be battling to hold the party's numerical strength in a constituency which has been reduced from a four-seater to a three-seater since 1997.
Labour's Ms Róisín Shortall is, no doubt, delighted that her party colleague, Mr Proinsias De Rossa MEP, is opting to remain in Europe, giving her a clear run. Mr De Rossa scraped home last time as the leader of Democratic Left, but joined Ms Shortall on the Labour benches when the two parties amalgamated.
Ms Shortall should hold her seat in a constituency which has always had a strong left-wing vote. However, Ms Shortall and the two Fianna Fáil TDs, notably Mr Carey, will be under pressure from Fine Gael's Mr Brendan Brady and Sinn Féin's Mr Dessie Ellis.
Mr Ahern is a chip off the Ahern block when it comes to garnering votes, although he is very much his own man when expressing his views within the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party.
He has built up a strong constituency base, nearly doubling his vote with 1.51 quotas, the third highest in the State, the last time.
The party's overall vote was up by 13.66 per cent, as he secured 11,075 first preferences and was followed by Mr Carey with 6,188. Mr Carey received 76 per cent of Mr Ahern's surplus and took the second seat on the second count.
Mr Carey was a strong performer in the last Dáil and frequently represented the party on radio and television programmes. He has also been assiduously nursing the constituency, securing 2,771 first preferences, more than 600 over the quota, in the Finglas ward in the local elections.
In 1997, Ms Shortall saw her vote more than halved to 4,084 first preferences, as Labour slipped from the high of the previous election. But she survived, mainly because of a surprisingly poor showing by Mr De Rossa and a chaotic Fine Gael strategy.
Since then, she has been working hard to rebuild her constituency base and has turned in an impressive performance as spokeswoman on education and children.
The Fine Gael candidate, Mr Brendan Brady, was unlucky to lose out to Mr De Rossa for the last seat in 1997. He will launch a strong challenge this time, but he may need a national swing to the party to secure a seat.
There will be considerable interest in the performance of Mr Ellis, who polled 2,278 first preferences in Finglas to secure a Dublin Corporation seat in 1999.
He may well eat into Mr Carey's Finglas base, but it remains questionable if he can secure enough first preferences and transfers to win a seat.
Mr Tommy Simpson is running for the Green Party, while long-time activist, Mr Sean Ó Cionnaith is the Workers' Party candidate.
Prediction: FF 2, Lab 1.