THAILAND’S PRIME minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has described next weekend’s elections as an opportunity to detoxify the political landscape of exiled leader Thaksin Shinawatra’s lingering influence.
The country has been locked in political crisis for years. Deep divisions exist between the Bangkok elite and the army who broadly back Oxford-educated Mr Abhisit and the rural poor and northern faction who support Mr Thaksin.
There is some hope that Sunday’s elections might bring more stability, but they could also deepen the political rifts.
Mr Abhisit was speaking at the Rajaprasong intersection in Bangkok, where a year ago Thai soldiers ended a two-month protests by Thaksin Red Shirt loyalists.
The crackdown sparked arson attacks and clashes that left more than 90 dead and 1,800 injured.
“This is the best chance for us to remove Thaksin’s venom from society,” he told thousands of supporters outside a shopping mall that was torched by angry Red Shirts as the army moved in on the occupied zone. “It’s time to show the world that Thailand is not the property of one person or one colour. The country is the property of all Thais.”
Although Mr Thaksin – the telecoms tycoon turned premier who was ousted in a bloodless coup in 2006 – lives in exile in Dubai and faces a two-year sentence for corruption if he returns, his political shadow is inescapable in Thailand.
His supporters easily won the last election in 2007. But parliamentary manoeuvring and legal action meant Mr Abhisit’s Democrats assumed power in 2008.
Mr Abhisit has stressed a message of reconciliation since the military crackdown and in a best-case scenario the polls could bring peace to southeast Asia’s second-biggest economy. However, if the outcome is not respected, further clashes between the government and Red Shirts could erupt.
Mr Thaksin is represented by his younger sister, 43-year-old businesswoman Yingluck Shinawatra, whom he has described as his “clone”.
She is the face of the Pheu Thai (For Thais) party, which is only the latest name for Mr Thaksin’s powerful political apparatus; the party slogan is “Thaksin Thinks, Pheu Thai Does.” Opinion polls show that Puea Thai lead Mr Abhisit’s Democrats. If elected, Ms Yingluck will become Thailand’s first female prime minister and is expected to give her brother an amnesty, which would allow him to return and reclaim a vast fortune in seized assets.
Mr Abhisit’s Democrats have not won an election in two decades and his elitist image does not endear him to the poor, who comprise the majority of the electorate.
However, there are signs that Mr Abhisit has boosted support for the party by keeping the economy strong and implementing policies and subsidies to assist the poor.
The economy seems to be able to withstand all manner of instability. Last year it grew at its fastest rate for 15 years despite the violence, but fears that a victory for Pheu Thai could lead to unrest led foreign investors to withdraw €571 million from the stock market this month.
At the same time Thailand remains popular with tourists and there is significant investment in industry, enabling the economy to chug along nicely.
People are watching the military to see if it will intervene, especially if Pheu Thai wins and decides to investigate what really happened during the crackdown. The army denies it is planning a putsch, but there have been 18 military coups since 1932 and the army denied it was planning a coup before the 2006 move.
Moreover, ongoing concern exists about the health of the much-loved King Bhumibol Adulyadej, one of the few unifying figures in national politics.
The 83-year-old monarch has been in hospital since September 2009.
There are concerns his succession may be fraught due to political tension. Public discussion of the monarchy is limited by strict se-majest laws that carry a penalty of up to 15 years in jail.
