THE SATURDAY PROFILE: Coincidence says nothing too weird is likely to happen at Aintree today, but the fascination of the Grand National is that nobody can be sure, writes Brian O'Connor.
The world's most famous horse race has intrigued and appalled almost in equal measure since the first was won in 1837 by the appropriately named Lottery. But recently the National appears to divide its real eye-popping, headline-grabbing lunacy for four year intervals.
In 1993 there was the race that wasn't, a false start fiasco that turned a simple piece of knicker elastic into a subject of world mirth and made bowler hatted types everywhere very sheepish.
Then there was 1997 and the bomb scare that saw an evacuation of the entire track just minutes before the race. What followed was a "best of British" bullishness that resulted in the postponed National being run two days late.
And of course last year, we had the greatest National lottery since 1967 as persistent rain turned the ground into a glue-pot and a loose horse decided to turn around and head-butt half the field.
The result was just two horses fighting out a memorable finish even if Red Marauder's victory seemed to be a triumph against the elements rather than any opposition.
There was an inevitable outcry at the perceived cruelty of running horses over 4½ miles on extreme ground and over the world's most famous and testing fences.
Words such as "cowardice" and "disgrace" were flung at the authorities for letting the race go ahead and for a time emotions ran higher than the top of Bechers Brook.
But all the furore ultimately achieved was to reinforce the Grand National's reputation as the world's most exciting game of chance.
The boost was timely. Compared to the heady days of Red Rum and Aldaniti, Foinavon and L'Escargot, the National had been veering dangerously close to becoming just another long steeplechase.
Form was actually becoming a vital component to finding the winner. Old-timers insist the modifications to the fences have emasculated the race and sniff at the idea that the National is still the pin-sticker's paradise of old.
Two Irish winners, the first since the legendary L'Escargot in 1975, seemed only to help their argument.
Bobbyjo in 1999 was backed down to 10/1 before he won for Paul Carberry and the following year Papillon, trained by Ted Walsh, was a colossal nationwide gamble from 40/1.
It was the sort of inspired betting that punters dream of, but it wasn't Grand National betting.
The bookies' busiest day of the year is supposed to be about millions of £1 each ways on no-hopers who might just stand up when everything else falls. Or they might just like a certain colour horse, or its name.
Last year's dramatics have ensured that when the once-a-year gamblers sit down to watch their one horse race of the year, they will still feel they have a chance, no matter what the logic of their choice.
Having a chance is what the National has always been about. The stories of roguery, luck and bitter disappointment have been building since the great race was first run.
Who could have guessed that a less-than-abstinent Captain Martin Becher would fall into a brook in 1839, complain that the water tasted awful without whisky, and have his name become synonymous with a sport?
There are those who to this day still believe that the 1947 Irish winner Caughoo, which started at 100/1, didn't run the full 4½ miles at all.
Instead, the rumour mill whispered he had hidden behind a fence in the thick fog and joined up when the rest of the field raced around for the second time.
Devon Loch's belly flop when just yards from victory in 1956, Foinavon's 100/1 success, after most of the field came to a halt at the 23rd fence, and Bob Champion's return from cancer to win on Aldaniti in 1981would have been dismissed as outlandish if presented as movie plots.
However, it is Red Rum, the triple winner of 1973-74-77, who created the greatest Grand National legend and is now buried at the winning post.
"It's the greatest race of all," Red Rum's trainer Ginger McCain has repeatedly claimed and the millions who worldwide are expected to bet close on £120 million evidently agree.
There are those who don't, however, and protests from animal rights activists are again expected today.
That, thrown in with general security concerns surrounding the National's world profile, means a simple horse race has turned into a huge operation for Merseyside police who have been planning for today for the last six months.
At heart, however, the National remains the ultimate test of man and horse, and political correctness is a long way from diluting that sweaty, open air core.
The defence of the National has been headed by Jenny Pitman in recent years and the only woman ever to train a Grand National winner is famous for her concern for the horses' welfare.
"When my horses went out to run in the National, they were a bit like aircraft going to war. I hoped they came back in one piece with no war wounds or bullet holes."
That's the fascination of the thing. It's gruelling and sometimes harsh but even the once a year gamblers will tell you, it's never boring.
Milestones in the National's long history
1837 - THE DUKE wins the first Great Liverpool Steeplechase at Maghull.
1839 - Aintree becomes the new home for the event, with LOTTERY carrying off the prize and Captain Martin Becher christening the now-famous brook.
1847 - MATTHEW records the first Irish-trained victory on the day the race was named the Grand National.
1857 - EMIGRANT wins for his bookmaker owners.
1867 - The Duke of Hamilton wins the race with CORTOLVIN.
1877 - The five-year-old AUSTERLITZ wins, with his owner-rider clinging to the saddle at each fence.
1887 - GAMECOCK follows up his 20-1 "National" victory by winning the Champion Chase the next day.
1897 - MANIFESTO, the 6-1 favourite, records the first of his two wins in the race.
1907 - Jockey Alf Newey brings EREMON home in front, despite riding without stirrups.
1917 - ALLYMACAD wins the second of the wartime substitute races staged at Gatwick.
1927 - Ted Leader rides SPRIG to victory in the first National to be covered by a BBC radio commentary.
1937 - ROYAL MAIL is an appropriately named winner in the presence of King George VI and Queen Elizabeth.
1947 - CAUGHOO beats 56 opponents over a mist-shrouded Aintree and is then accused of only going round once.
1956 - DEVON LOCH with jockey Dick Francis suddenly sprawls flat on the ground yards from the winning post, allowing E.S.B. to win.
1957 - Champion jockey Fred Winter brings the giant SUNDEW home by eight lengths.
1967 - The year of the horrific pile-up at the 23rd. John Buckingham and complete outsider FOINAVON avoid the melée and gallop on to a 100-1 win.
1974 - Grand National "character" the Duke of Alburquerque completes the course for the one and only time in numerous attempts on NEREO.
1977 - The incomparable RED RUM re-writes the record books with his historic third victory.
1979 - RUBSTIC makes history by becoming the first Scottish-trained winner.
1981 - ALDANITI, nursed back from injury three times, wins the "fairytale" National ridden by Bob Champion, who fought, and beat, cancer.
1982 - Dick Saunders at the age of 48 becomes the oldest winning jockey on GRITTAR.
1983-Years of doubt about the National's future are ended when the Jockey Club, helped by public donations, buys the course.
1986 - ESSEX becomes the first horse from behind the Iron Curtain to run in the race for 25 years.
1987 - Jim Joel becomes the oldest winning owner at 92.
1991 - Gold Cup winner GARRISON SAVANNAH leads over the last fence and looks poised to complete a double last achieved by Golden Miller in 1934, only to be caught on the long run-in by SEAGRAM.
1993 - The darkest day in the history of the National as the great race turns into a farce.
1994 - MIINNEHOMA gives multiple champion trainer Martin Pipe his first National victory.
1995 - Jenny Pitman, "the first lady of Aintree", gains her second success with ROYAL ATHLETE.
1996 - Mick Fitzgerald is overcome by his victory on ROUGH QUEST.
1997 - An IRA bomb hoax causes Aintree to be evacuated.
1999 - Tommy and Paul Carberry team up to land a first Irish win for 24 years with BOBBYJO.
2000 - PAPILLION lands a gamble for Ted and Ruby Walsh.
2001 - RED MARAUDER and Smarty are the only horses to avoid mishap.