The Chinese dragon chooses tiny Singapore to breathe new fire into its vast economy

ONCE China looked to the Soviet Union for its economic example. Today this huge, chaotic country of 1

ONCE China looked to the Soviet Union for its economic example. Today this huge, chaotic country of 1.2 billion people takes as its role model the super clean, authoritarian, city state of Singapore. Singapore has a population of less than three million, and a reputation for fining anyone who drops litter or spits in public places.

Nothing illustrates better the light years China has travelled as it transforms itself into Asia's economic powerhouse. The Communist Party secretary general, Jiang Zemin, gave the Singapore example his stamp of approval when he visited the city of Jhangjigan in southern China, a new urban development with azaleas and clean streets which has set itself the goal of achieving a Singapore like appearance and psychology.

Each inhabitant has a little red book, not full of quotations from Mao Zedong, but packed with advice on how to be a tidy citizen in a country where the detritus of daily life is often thrown on the street. People should not smoke or gamble, it says rubbish should be put in plastic bags and in laws treated with respect.

Chinese leaders clearly see attractions in the tight control exercised by the Singapore government and the obedience of its citizens, who are mainly ethnic Chinese. Jiang ordered a national campaign to follow Jhangjigan's and Singapore's lead.

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But it is not just a culture of cleanliness and order which China is importing from Singapore. At Zuzhou on the outskirts of Shanghai, Singapore companies have invested 2 billion to build a Chinese town with Singapore's character.

As its economy expands, China is drawing in huge investment from Asian tiger" economies, such as Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan.

At first it was the allure of low Chinese wages, but the attraction today is the vast potential of the Chinese market. This has experienced phenomenal growth rates of over 10 per cent a year throughout the 1990s the rate will slow to a still healthy 8 per cent this year.

The building of apartment blocks in Beijing is an ideal combination of these twin economic factors. Foreigners and returned Chinese citizens in the capital pay high Tokyo style rents, but the bulk of the manual work on the buildings is done by lowly paid Chinese workers, many of whom have migrated to the cities to make a living from the construction boom.

The new building in which I have rented a flat is typical it was constructed with overseas Chinese money its manager is from Singapore and it has a sales office in Hong Kong.

The vast majority of the 8340 billion investment in China between 1991 and 1995 came from other Asian countries, according to a Japanese research institute. Imports from Asian countries have risen by 600 per cent in the last 10 years. The main trend is the movement of whole industries into China.

China also has a wealthy diaspora of some 40 million people. These are investing heavily on the prospect of the mother country becoming the economic powerhouse of the eastern world. The growth in investment has reached the point that if the Chinese economy were to crash, there would be serious consequences for the whole region.

It is now very much in the interests of China's neighbours that it should grow in prosperity. This should discourage it from expanding in other ways, according to historians who favour the theory that increased affluence will mean greater democratisation as happened in South Korea and Taiwan, though not in Singapore.

Business co-operation with Taiwan, for example, lessens the danger of a military clash. Likewise, a smooth transition of power from British to Chinese rule in Hong Kong is in China's interests because of the role the British possession plays as the investment motor for China's boom.

A peaceful and mutually profitable economic integration of Hong Kong and China is already well under way. Hong Kong business interests have invested widely in China, while China has become the largest foreign investor in the colony.

Investment from Hong Kong and the Portuguese enclave of Macao which is due to revert to China in three years increased from $4 billion to $34 billion between 1990 and 1995.

China has promised that, under its policy of "bone China, two systems", the free wheeling capitalist order in Hong Kong will continue for 50 years. Many observers feel it is in Beijing's interests that it should honour its commitment to the letter. Hong Kong would become the model for eventual peaceful reunion with Taiwan. If it goes wrong, resistance in Taiwan to reintegration with China will stiffen.

As it is, in Hong Kong everything is going much more smoothly that expected. The predicted flight of capital and financial talent has not occurred. The number of American firms has in fact increased, as US companies seize the opportunity of a strong toehold in the new China of opportunity.

The United States has begun to penetrate the Chinese market. Nike and Head and Shoulders Shampoo can be found every where more than 200 Boeing jets fly Chinese skies. The prospects of a giant new consumer nation have US exporters drooling.

China is still a difficult place to do business. Tax preferences for foreign investors have been cut back as the Chinese realise they call the shots. But the long term prognosis for the Chinese economy is so promising that many investors are taking losses just to get established in the Middle Kingdom market.

There are those in official circles in China like the scholars who published a controversial book last month called China Can Say No who criticise the youthful craze for anything American. They even argue that the only way to retrieve Taiwan is by force and that young people should train for this eventuality.

Official policy, however, is to promote co-operation with the business community on the island province to which the defeated Chiang Kai shek fled after the communist victory in 1949.

But investment in China could fall sharply if there were to be a shift away from present policies after the death of Deng Xiaoping. The 92 year old leader who set China on its present course after the Cultural Revolution, is in declining health.

Divisions between rich and poor are widening in China and despite Jiang's preeminence, there will undoubtedly be a power struggle when Deng leaves the scene. The present economic reform is continuing under Jiang's direction.

China is taking steps to gain world acceptability as a trading nation by demanding admission to the World Trade Organisation. Last year when the United States said no to Beijing's application for membership, Beijing promised to reduce import tariffs by as much as 200 per cent on a foreign car to improve its chances this year.

After 500 years of ignominy and humiliation, China is on the verge of resuming its historical role as a great world power. It is economic reform which has achieved this extraordinary feat the Chinese leadership is not likely to jeopardise that lightly.