The incorrigible Commissioner Flynn milks resignation crisis for all its worth

From a position where Padraig Flynn was down and just about out, the Irish Commissioner suddenly received negotiating chips through…

From a position where Padraig Flynn was down and just about out, the Irish Commissioner suddenly received negotiating chips through the shock resignation of the entire EU Commission. And, in typical fashion, he went on RTE radio to crow about it.

It wasn't quite up to the standard of his seminal Late Late Show performance, but it served. Bertie Ahern was in faraway America, flying from San Francisco to Washington, but even he must have picked up the vibrations from Mr Flynn's megaphone diplomacy.

When Sean O'Rourke referred on RTE to the Coalition Government's deafening silence about Mr Flynn's future, the Commissioner pooh-poohed it all. He wasn't surprised. The Taoiseach was away. In any event, these were matters that would have "to be considered by the Government and by me".

You could have heard a pin drop. Never a man to underestimate his political clout, Mr Flynn was putting it up to Bertie. It took two to tango, he suggested. If the Government wished him to remain for the crucial negotiations dealing with Agenda 2000, CAP reform, regionalisation and structural funding, then they would have to ask him - nicely.

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It was a matter for the Government. But it was also a matter for him. Whoever was nominated as Irish commissioner would have to say "Yes" or "No", he explained sweetly.

He went on to describe how busy he would be defending Ireland's interests in Agenda 2000 negotiations; on CAP reform, regionalisation and structural and cohesion funding.

It sounded suspiciously like a Flynn challenge: "Hit me now with the national interest in me arms." The Coalition Government opted to buy time.

But there was something in it for all parties. Where Mr Flynn was concerned, there was the outside chance of a short-term nomination. At a minimum, he could leave Brussels with some dignity, rather than go under a Dail motion of "no confidence".

Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, on the other hand, had an opportunity to resolve their differences over the Commissioner without destabilising the Government.

However, Mr Flynn's negotiating chips are a wasting asset, and he knows it. If the German Presidency has its way, the crucial Agenda 2000 negotiations, on CAP, structural funding and everything else, will be completed next week.

That would remove public justification for his retention, and re-nomination would guarantee Opposition criticism in the run-up to the European and local elections.

Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael put it bluntly. "Citizen Flynn" was now answerable to the Dail, he said. There was unfinished business to be dealt with before there could be any question of re-appointing him.

No decision on Mr Flynn's position will be taken until Bertie Ahern gets together with Mary Harney next Friday. Even then, a Government spokesman said, clarity was unlikely to enter the equation until after the EU Heads of government dealt with the issue at the Berlin summit on March 24th-25th.

That would allow more than enough time for quiet backstairs negotiations. The manner and tone of Mr Flynn's going, rather than the departure itself, was of vital importance. The unfortunate Gilmartin business - the assertion that Mr Flynn had been given £50,000 for the Fianna Fail Party that never arrived - couldn't be ignored.

The caretaker commissioner refused to answer questions on the matter, even when pressed by the Dail, on the basis of legal advice.

The Flood tribunal will pronounce on the matter next week. That may give the controversy a fresh set of legs but, equally, it may put it quietly to bed for months.

One way or another, the tide is going out for Mr Flynn. He may depart Brussels at an early stage, under pressure. Or he may serve in a caretaker capacity under Article 160 of the Rome Treaty which states: "Members shall remain in office until they are replaced."

That heads will roll is beyond doubt. Any attempt by the Berlin summit to allow Commissioners serve out their full terms, to the end of 1999, would attract the wrath of the European Parliament.

The parliament has just won a major trial of strength with the Commission, and no government will attempt to reverse the march of democracy.

The early removal of Jacques Santer as President may, or may not, serve as a reason not to re-nominate Mr Flynn. But even Mr Santer is expected to survive for some weeks. That is long enough to deal with major EU business in hand.

Mr Flynn finds himself between a rock and a hard place. And the Government is in an unforgiving mood.