MIDDLE EAST: Peter Hirschberg analyses the two-year Palestinian uprising which simmers with no peace in sight.
More than 1,800 Palestinians and 600 Israelis have been killed since the intifada uprising erupted two years ago, on September 28th, 2000. Tens of thousands of Palestinians and thousands of Israelis have been injured, many of them maimed.
Yet, despite the enormous human cost - as well as the social and economic price - that both sides have endured, the war of attrition in the Middle East continues to simmer, at times punctuated by spasms of bloody violence, with no diplomatic escape hatch evident.
For the Palestinians, the price has been especially high. The ongoing attacks on Israelis, including over 140 suicide bombers since the start of the intifada, have been met by a devastating Israeli response. Most of the West Bank is under curfew today and the army has imposed crippling travel restrictions. Unemployment is running at 50 per cent. Half of Palestinian society lives below the poverty line.
In recent months, some Palestinian leaders have begun to call for a reassessment of the uprising, questioning whether it has improved their lot. In a statement issued just yesterday, the Speaker of the Palestinian parliament, Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala), urged Palestinians to reconsider their tactics.
But despite assessments that the Palestinian public might be displaying signs of fatigue, recent opinion polls indicate that the militant Islamic group Hamas, which rejects Israel's existence and has spearheaded suicide bombings, is for the first time running neck-and-neck with President Yasser Arafat's Fatah party.
Israel's siege of the Palestinian leader in Ramallah has boosted his popularity - at least momentarily. But Mr Arafat cannot afford to be buoyed up: while Israel's siege fiasco may have cost it points in the diplomatic war, over the last two years the Palestinian leader has chalked up few clear diplomatic victories.
If he was hoping to wrench diplomatic concessions from Israel via armed resistance, so far he has been disappointed. His ultimate goal of an independent Palestinian state looks far more distant today than two years ago.
Most dramatically, the ongoing attacks on Israelis and Mr Arafat's unwillingness, or inability, to stop them, have wrecked his relations with the Americans.
While President Bush has met the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, on several occasions, he has so far refused to meet Mr Arafat. In a speech in June, Mr Bush all but called for his overthrow.
The suicide bombers, while successfully terrorising Israeli society, have provided the Palestinians with something of a counter to Israel's military might. But the bombers, especially in the prevailing post-September 11th atmosphere, have also tarnished the Palestinian cause in the eyes of the international community.
Mr Sharon, whose visit to the Temple Mount, or Haram al Sharif (as the Palestinians call it), precipitated the violence that erupted into a full-fledged uprising, may have the upper-hand with the Americans, but since he took office 18 months ago the violence has escalated, as have the numbers of Israelis dying in the conflict.
The intifada has also battered the Israeli economy, leading to a dramatic drop in tourism and foreign investment, increased defence spending, and a shaky local currency. Overall, estimates put the cost of the intifada to Israel at $8 billion.
Despite the use of increasing force - targeted killings, mass arrests of militants, and even the reconquest of the West Bank - Israel has failed to extinguish Palestinian attacks.
Two years on, there is no diplomatic initiative in sight. With the Americans focused on Saddam Hussein, one is unlikely to emerge in the near future.
The sides, however, might take solace in the fact that the end of the first intifada, combined with the US attack on Iraq in 1991, ultimately spawned a new constellation in the Middle East which produced a dramatic US-led peace initiative.