CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK: The thousands of newcomers are unlikely to change the status quo here, writes Kathy Sheridan
On the face of it, Kildare North looks like returning the same three "aul hazards", as one of them put it. But shifting strategies and a Factor X suggest it ain't necessarily so.
Since 1997, the number of candidates in this three-seater has fallen from eight to five. Of the five, four have run before. The Green party has withdrawn and Labour and Fine Gael have retrenched. Both Mr Emmet Stagg and Mr Bernard Durkan have chosen to enter this contest without running mates, which suggests an element of wariness.
Meanwhile, the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, is expected to show much improved form. Whereas it took four counts to elect him in 1997, this time he is predicted not only to head the field - as he did by a short head last time out - but canter home on the first count with a surplus.
This could be crucial to his stable mate from Leixlip in the north of the county, solicitor and rugby fanatic, Mr Paul Kelly. Mr Kelly managed to poll over 4,000 votes in his first general election outing in 1997, with the help of an inspired series of postcards. He has mounted a serious heave for this one, hitting the doorsteps since Christmas. Since his only serious Leixlip rival, Ms Catherine Murphy (DL in 1997, now Mr Stagg's director of elections in the town), has stood down, he has it all to play for. Some predict he could increase his first preferences to 6,000.
But although Mr McCreevy's surplus would give him a vital fillip, he also needs a share of Factor X in the form of PD candidate Ms Kathleen Walsh.
Cllr Walsh stunned the pundits in her home town of Celbridge by harvesting double Mr Stagg's vote in the local elections. A larger-than-life character who lives on the main street, she generates much goodwill, with a long-standing record of community activism and a solid team behind her. Ironically, there were sighs of relief when she chose to run for the PDs in this election. As an Independent she would have been considered much more dangerous.
Private polls, however, suggest she may peak at around 3,000 (with a quota of around 8,000). If these are accurate, she would be the first to be eliminated and the destination of those transfers may well provide Kildare North's (short-lived) cliffhanger.
The popular perception is that her local election triumph was at the expense of Labour's Emmet Stagg, another assiduous local worker. In fact, he is believed to have held his vote in Celbridge. So the question is, will they travel back to Mr Kelly or Mr Durkan or, as some believe, yield a fairly equal share to all three? With all the aul hazards talking down their vote, and hinting at possible disaster, no one is taking anything here for granted. One anti-FF'er gleefully remarks the "stay-at-home wives" are waiting in the long grass for Fianna Fáil. Another likes to murmur "Don't forget Le Pen", when confronted with an undecided.
An intriguing factor here is the political hue of the thousands of incomers and first-time voters to this constituency since 1997; provisional figures suggest the population has grown by nearly 15 per cent. Had the census gone ahead last year, Kildare North would probably be a four-seater by now. Celbridge for example, has seen numbers on its electoral register grow from 8,781 five years ago to nearly 12,000 today. The Naas register has gone up by about 3,000.
As for election issues, these centre on health, childcare, the neglect of children with special needs and law and order. But in a constituency made up of mostly white collar communities, where unemployment is well below the national average, it's hardly surprising that swimming pools and playgrounds for the exploding north are high on the agenda.
Prediction : 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 Labour. No change.