AN alliance of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats would have four seats more than the Rainbow coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left, according to the latest analysis of the 41 constituencies for the June 6th general election.
Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats would win 82 seats, compared to 78 for the combined Rainbow parties.
The result still suggests a hung Dail as, after the Ceann Comhairle is elected, 83 seats are required in the 166-seat assembly in order to form a government.
With just under three weeks to go to polling day, the forecast is: Fianna Fail 73 seats; Fine Gael 47; Labour 25; Progressive Democrats 9; Democratic Left 6; Independents 4; Greens 2.
The balance of power would therefore rest with four Independent TDs and two Green party deputies. The Independents include Mr Michael Lowry in North Tipperary who is not non-aligned in the sense that he has already indicated he intends to support John Bruton when the new Dail sits to elect a Taoiseach.
Winning the support of the other Independents would prove critical to each of the two blocs seeking power. Speculation has been building about the possibility that the Dublin Central Independent TD, Mr Tony Gregory, would be asked to consider the role of Ceann Comhairle. Should he accept such a proposal, there would in fact be just two non-aligned Independents and two Green TDs remaining.
Analysis suggests that these will be Independents Mildred Fox (Wicklow) and Joe Higgins (Dublin West) and Greens Trevor Sargent (Dublin North) and
Dan Boyle (Cork South Central).
In the event of a failure to agree a new government, another election would have to ensue. However, according to our analysis, Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats seem to be edging ahead of the combined rainbow parties.
The possibility of Fianna Fail and Labour forming a coalition seems highly remote now that the party leader, Mr Spring, has effectively tied his leadership to staying out of any coalition with Fianna Fail.