SINCE political circles are talking of little else, it is impossible to avoid election-date speculation. The smart money is on May/June. But when? There are a number of theories:
1. Oppositions tend to star while the Dail is in session as they can shine in the media by raising pertinent questions and harrying ministers who can then be portrayed as stalling and reluctant. Therefore, it is said, the Dail will get up for Easter on March 26th and won't return.
If the Government goes for a four-week campaign, which many believe would favour FG, voting could be on May 8th. Since RTE can't cover party conferences during a campaign, this scenario would scupper TV footage of the Labour Party Conference in Limerick on April 11th/12th (which would be bad for the Government) and also damage the FF Ard Fheis on April 18th-19th (which would be good). The Democratic Left Ard Fheis on April 25th-26th would suffer a similar fate but then its six seats are considered safe. The FG special commemoration on April 17th may or may not be affected.
2. The Taoiseach and Tanaiste don't want to miss the Dutch summit on June 13th. An election a couple of weeks before would mean they would be still in power, while the new government is being formed, on that date.
3. The Leaving and Junior Certs start on June 11th and the Government won't annoy parents with canvassing, polling and general disruption just before or during the exams.
4. RTE - a vital factor in modern elections, couldn't cope with Eurovision and the election at the same time. Eurovision is on May 3rd, so rule out that week.
5. The British election is scheduled for May 1st but could come earlier: it also will stretch RTE, especially with mounting interest in the North. Our crowd don't want to compete for airtime with Major and Blair, let alone Hume, Trimble and Co.
6. The Finance Bill, which gives effect to the Budget provisions, has to be passed before the Dail is dissolved. It could take until mid-May.
7. President, Mrs Robinson, will be on a State visit to Canada from May 4th-15th. It is unlikely an election will be held in her absence.
8. The three-party Coalition, although it proclaims the opposite with increasing confidence, believes it could lose power. In that case they may as well go to the limit so the new FG and DL ministers get their pensions. That means November. Cabinet members have been saying this all along to destabilise their opponents and have them worn to a frazzle come polling day. The problem is their own backbenchers will be in an equal frazzle and could revolt if they believe the Government intends such a strategy.
9. The de Rossa libel case and the Dunnes Payments Tribunal are loose cannons. Who, when and what will emerge? Both have a bearing on John Bruton's decision - for it is up to him to give the go-ahead.
Although the decision has not yet been reached, taking all the above into consideration, Quidnunc is putting her money on June 5th or 6th.