They're all making coalition eyes at blushing Labour

It's not all that long ago Padraig Flynn was describing single party government as a Fianna Fail "core value"

It's not all that long ago Padraig Flynn was describing single party government as a Fianna Fail "core value". And so indeed it was. Ever since the time Sean Lemass called the first coalition government in 1948 "a makeshift majority", down to Brian Cowen's "when in doubt, leave them out", Fianna Fail has always been lukewarm, if not hostile, to the very idea of coalition.

Now at Kilkenny this week we had Bertie Ahern telling us that not just is Fianna Fail best at coalition politics, it practically invented the concept. Oh well, it was a nice try but there was more to it than taking a swipe at Fine Gael. What Bertie was saying, and what everybody in Irish politics knows, is that as things stand no party has a hope in hell of getting an overall majority in the next election; the price of power is coalition - and Fianna Fail has no intention of being short-changed when it comes to the time.

One way or another, most parties are returning to the Dail refreshed and in good humour. How long that will last is another matter but the pre-term meetings seem to have worked for all parties - well, most parties.

Fine Gael's meeting in Athlone was, by all accounts, positive and good-humoured. The message was opposition would be focused and relentless, the jugular was the target and an early election the ambition. There was a strong sense of opponents reeling under a succession of reverses, out of touch and accident prone. But there was a sense, too, that there would be no easy surrender. It would take strong opposition and "events" to shift them.

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If Fianna Fail was on the ropes at the end of June and reeling from one setback to another over the summer there was little evidence of a party about to hand in its P45s at its meeting in Kilkenny this week. The mood was good. There was an underlying belief that the tide could be turned but to do so would take time, direction and a bit of luck. As the top table kept repeating, the fundamentals are fine, it's the little things that keep going wrong.

In a strange way, Labour is the most uneasy of the major parties facing the new session. It should not be so: the opinion polls are going the right direction, Ruairi Quinn had a good summer and the party's new health policy is impressive enough to have Micheal Martin worried.

The problem is the love bombing it is getting from both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. It's difficult, certainly, not to be tempted with impure thoughts which no amount of cold water will drive away.

Labour is indeed very touchy on the subject. The stock line is this is a matter for Labour and Labour alone. It will not be lectured to by Fine Gael or prop up an attenuated Fianna Fail. Labour will do what is best in the national interest. And in Labour's own interest too, but no doubt the two will probably coincide.

It's not that simple, however . The choices to be made are real ones, not academic hypotheses to be picked at. In the past, opposition to coalition per se was a Labour core value. In the 1960s, Labour argued that the two civil war parties should come together as one conservative party and let our politics evolve on right/left lines. And of course when that happened Labour would ultimately triumph as the majority party of the left. It was grand in theory but nobody ever let the electorate in on the secret and Fianna Fail, with its single-party core value intact, skated back time after time on the back of opposition disunity.

Labour has learned a great deal since then. It now sees itself as a party of government, arguing, as any sensible politician would, it is better to get half of your policies enacted than look on from the sideline. Labour, like every other party, wants to be in government after the next election. Of all the parties it is the one most likely to be. But to achieve that end, it needs to keep its options open.

That brings its own particular problems; for instance, how it can resolutely oppose Fianna Fail and ask the electorate for change while preparing to do business with Fianna Fail, if the numbers so dictate.

It's not a question of morality. It's a question of what the electorate will wear - Dick Spring paid a heavy price for saying one thing before the election and doing something different after. Then there is the practical question of voting arrangements or transfer pacts, which won Fianna Fail extra seats in the last election when the PDs' transfers came that party's way. Liz O'Donnell won her seat on Fianna Fail transfers. Most experts reckon a voting arrangement is worth up to half a dozen crucial seats.

Be that as it may, Ruairi Quinn is right to keep his options open - at least for the present. Further revelations may make it impossible to talk to Fianna Fail and worsening inflation may make it undesirable. Or, at one bound our hero Bertie may burst free and soar away from all his problems. In Drapier's view, it will be the force of public opinion in the run-up to the election which will decide the issue for Labour - whether to opt categorically against Fianna Fail or leave the question open until the votes are in.

One factor in the next governmental equation may well be the Greens. That party is in good shape and stands to gain seats - and maybe more than most people think. The Greens will not be shy about government. The PDs, on the other hand, are looking at an increasingly gloomy future And Sinn Fein - well, who knows? Two seats, certainly, but what if it is four or five? No sane person is ruling it out of any equation. And Bertie Ahern is sane.

One way or another, the Dail session starting on Tuesday is going to be exciting and unpredictable, promising all kinds of everything. The O'Flaherty affair is now history - that's official - but there is still a promised motion on the Sheedy affair; the private polling of all parties shows inflation to be the major worry; PPF is vulnerable, violence on the streets is an increasing worry; the Tipp South by-election will bring us all back to the hustings; the tribunals will continue to provide background music, the teachers will be even angrier and the unexpected will continue to happen. It's going to be exciting and the only certainty is that nothing is certain.