Thoughts turn to an election date

FINE Gael has booked the RDS for its annual ardfheis in May; Fianna Fail has it for a date in April

FINE Gael has booked the RDS for its annual ardfheis in May; Fianna Fail has it for a date in April. Normally, the ardfheiseanna are held in winter but this year we have the presidency.

The interesting thing about the dates is that they come right in the middle of the period when, according to the consensus in Leinster House, we can expect a general election.

FG's view is what matters, since they are in power. So when do they want it? Early June, probably, but they're not sure. Some in the party believe they should wait until after next year's second Budget in October 1997. The second coalition partner, Labour, has been heard to favour holding the presidential election and the general election together in early November. The most junior partner, Democratic Left, wants it in late spring.

Our next Budget is in January and will indicate whether the Government is going to cut and run. The greater the goodies, the sooner the election. As we move over to the European system of budgets next year we will have a second Budget in October which means the Government could go to the country three weeks later. But waiting is dangerous, in that it allows no leeway should a banana skin appear.

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Then there are those - in the Opposition mind you - who believe the Coalition will fall apart immediately the EU presidency ends, and that we won't get even a January Budget as the three partners won't agree on the estimates and each will be desperately seeking an issue on which to pull out.

As the Taoiseach John Bruton heads off on a motoring and camping holiday in France with his family this weekend, no doubt this vital matter will be foremost in his mind.

victims may never know how close they came to death.