When Ireland first returned to Lansdowne Road in the autumn of 2010, Brian O’Driscoll spoke for all when declaring Ireland’s need to make the Aviva a fortress. Alas, not helped by the IRFU’s ticketing fiasco, as fortresses go it’s been more akin to the Maginot Line, which the Germans stormed in about a day.
Following the All Blacks' fairly bloodless coup in that opening 2010 series, after which Graham Henry declared the Avvia as good as any stadium they'd ever visited, the thought occurred that maybe the facilities were too good. In any event, after six defeats in nine games, it's time to start making it less welcoming for visiting teams, and there's only one way of achieving that.
"The stats are there," admitted Declan Kidney yesterday. "You just peck away at getting back the wins, put more numbers under the 'W' and build it up from there. The past is exactly that and we just have to look to rectify that."
Ireland's prospects wouldn't appear to have been helped by yesterday's revelation that their World Cup-winning forwards coach Gert Smal has been incapacitated this week and for the remainder of the Six Nations due to an eye condition.
Most relevantly, the Irish coach sounded optimistic about Smal's long-term well-being. "Yeah I would be. I'm no doctor; there's no absolutes. But we were only laughing and joking about it yesterday. There'll be a bit of a slag about it on the June tour."
Paul O'Connell admitted it wasn't ideal not having Smal around this week, "but he had most of his prep done and handed that over to us and we followed the regular pattern of the week. We probably haven't had him critiquing us like normal but we've tried to monitor ourselves in terms of what we've done around the lineout and the breakdown."
The captain described Anthony Foley, who links up with the squad today and will be with them for the rest of the tournament, as an excellent coach who will add to the ticket, and arguably Munster will be the most affected by all of this. Smal's absence might be more problematic next week against the French, who probably have the best scrum and defensive lineout in the competition.
The Azzurri are not as strong in either sector, all the more so without Martin Castrogiovanni – as was evidenced after his departure during Ireland's 36-6 win in the World Cup pool finale in Dunedin. Indeed, with only eight of that starting line-up reappearing for today's kick-off, Jacques Brunel has possibly had to apply more surgery than he would have planned.
However, their Achilles heel at outhalf remains. After experimenting with Kris Burton, more a kicking outhalf, the selection of Tobias Botes at number 10 for his first Test start would suggest that Brunel remains hell-bent on broadening Italy's game. However, Botes' kicking out of hand and especially off the tee, as a replacement against England, hardly inspired confidence.
The Edoardo Gori-Botes pairing is the Azzurri's 30th half-back combination since the record-breaking partnership of Diego Dominguez and Alessandro Troncon was broken up with the former's retirement in 2003 after 52 Tests together. What the Italians, and many others, would give for either of Ireland's outhalves.
Ronan O'Gara is the only survivor in either squad from the meeting in 2000, when he kicked 30 points, and will overtake Brian O'Driscoll as Ireland's most-capped player should he come on as a replacement today. At their base in Portmarnock yesterday, Brunel noted how Ireland began making an investment in the "talented" Jonathan Sexton, but also how O'Gara orchestrated both Ireland's late escape in Rome last year and handsome win in Dunedin before suggesting: "Maybe it is still unclear as to who the first choice is."
While accepting that Ireland losing O'Driscoll would be akin to Italy losing the inspirational Sergio Parisse, Brunel said the "multi, multi" experienced Gordon D'Arcy "has a strong influence, but I hope that maybe O'Driscoll's absence will help us a little".
Also highlighting the threat posed by Ireland's backrow, Brunel said: "They can go through many, many phases so the big challenge for us will be not to give them the pace they want."
And therein, perhaps, lies the key for Ireland as well, ie generating that tempo. Like Italy, Ireland don't have a natural openside to facilitate this, but by utilising those "running backs", Stephen Ferris, Seán O'Brien and Jamie Heaslip, in wider areas, Ireland have the skills, pace and finishing to then hurt the Italians in phased attack.
Having Craig Joubert as referee, whom Ireland had three times at the World Cup, for his first match since that final, won't be of any harm. Aside from being good, he is particularly harsh on players not rolling away from the wrong side.
In this and more, much of the improvements that were required in the build-up to Paris apply again, for Ireland also need to be much more aggressive in their line speed defensively, especially with the muscular Parisse and co around the fringes.
With an unwanted additional rest weekend, and the forecast set pretty fair, Ireland ought to have had the time, as well as the resolve, to do so. The time to start building a fortress starts now.
Betting (Paddy Powers): 1/14 Ireland, 33/1 Draw, 9/1 Italy. Handicap odds (Italy + 15pts) Evens Ireland, 18/1 Draw, Evens Italy.
Forecast: Ireland to win.
(Leinster) Rob Kearney
(Ospreys) Tommy Bowe
(Munster) Keith Earls
(Leinster) Gordon D'Arcy
(Ulster) Andrew Trimble
(Leinster) Jonathan Sexton
(Munster) Conor Murray
(Leinster) Cian Healy
(Ulster) Rory Best
(Leinster) Mike Ross
(Munster) Donncha O'Callaghan
(Munster, capt) Paul O'Connell
(Ulster) Stephen Ferris
(Leinster) Seán O'Brien
(Leinster) Jamie Heaslip
Replacements: Seán Cronin (Leinster), Tom Court (Ulster), Donnacha Ryan (Munster), Peter O'Mahony (Munster), Eoin Reddan (Leinster), Ronan O'Gara (Munster), Fergus McFadden (Leinster).
Replacements: Tommaso D'Apice (Aironi), Fabio Staibano (Aironi), Antonio Pavanello (Treviso), Simone Favaro (Aironi), Fabio Semenzato (Treviso), Kristopher Burton (Treviso), Gonzalo Canale (Clermont).
Aviva Stadium, Today, 1.30pm. Live RTE2 and BBC1, 1pm
Referee: Craig Joubert (SA). Assts: Nigel Owens (Wal) and David Changleng (Sco).
Andrea Masi (Aironi)
Giovanbattista Venditti (Aironi)
Tommaso Benvenuti (Treviso)
Alberto Sgarbi (Treviso)
Luke McLean (Treviso)
Tobias Botes (Treviso)
Edoardo Gori (Treviso)
Michele Rizzo (Treviso)
Leonardo Ghiraldini (Treviso)
Lorenzo Cittadini (Treviso)
Quintin Geldenhuys (Aironi)
Marco Bortolami (Aironi)
Alessandro Zanni (Treviso)
Robert Barbieri (Treviso)
Sergio Parisse (S Francais, capt)
