IRAQ: There are indications that Margaret Hassan was abducted by politically motivated terrorists rather than mere extortionists, writes Tom Clonan.
The abduction of Margaret Hassan may well develop beyond a simple demand for ransom.
The manner in which she was abducted - reportedly forced from her vehicle at gunpoint after it was intercepted en route to work - speaks of a level of organisation not normally associated with criminal gangs engaged in kidnapping and extortion.
Rather, her abduction would appear to have been executed along the lines of a military operation involving elements of surveillance, reconnaissance and the type of mobile communications necessary to effect an apparently seamless carjacking in broad daylight in a relatively heavily patrolled area.
The abduction would also appear to have involved a calculated and carefully restrained use of force designed to 'lift' the target physically unharmed.
The command and control elements of this abduction betray a sophistication normally associated with politically motivated resistance groups such as Abu Musab al Zarqawi's Tawhid and Jihad organisations.
The fact that Ms Hassan's image, recorded by digital camera, appeared on Arabic news channels within hours of her abduction also lends credence to the notion that her abductors are likely to be a fundamentalist resistance group - one that fully understands the propaganda and terror effect of such images.
Even if her abductors are not politically motivated, there is a significant risk that, consistent with standard criminal practice in Iraq, she might be "sold on" to such a group within the next 24 to 72 hours. This is especially so given the timing of British Prime Minister, Tony Blair's announcement that British troops will soon be deployed to the sensitive Sunni districts of Latifiyah, Iskanadariyah and Mahmudiyah south of Baghdad.
Ironically, it is believed that Kenneth Bigley was murdered in this very area - a killing that was designed to weaken Tony Blair's leadership at home and to drive a wedge between the primary coalition partners.
Unfortunately, the timing of Ms Hassan's abduction also coincides with an anticipated intensification of violence within Iraq in advance of the US presidential elections next month.
It also occurs during the month of Ramadan, when anti-British and anti-American sentiment are likely to be inflamed - especially among fundamentalist groups incensed by the ongoing occupation of Iraq and in particular, the build-up to what looks like an imminent all-out assault on Falluja at this sensitive time.
The longer she remains in captivity, the greater the risk that she will fall into the hands of such a fundamentalist group.
Despite Margaret's status as an Irish and Iraqi citizen, terrorists like Abu Musab al Zarqawi will focus on her British citizenship at this time to the exclusion of all other considerations.
Unfortunately, concern for her plight and expressions of sympathy from Mr Blair and Mr Jack Straw, along with yesterday's front-page headlines in the British media identifying Margaret as a Briton, will serve to further emphasise her 'Britishness' in the coming days.
This in turn will increase her propaganda and terror value for terrorist organisations such as al Zarqawi's Jihad and Tawhid groups - particularly as they attempt to undermine Blair's position in Britain and in their attempts to damage the US and British coalition.
As British troops prepare to deploy in support of aexpected US assault on Fallujah, Ms Hassan's plight becomes more and more perilous.
Given Zarqawi's cynical invocation of the plight of female Iraqi "prisoners" as a pretext for brutal killing, and given the general contempt for the welfare of women shown by Sunni extremists, Margaret Hassan's status as a female hostage is likely - if she should fall into the wrong hands - to increase her "value" to her abductors.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer. He is a Fellow of the Inter University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, Loyola University, Chicago.