1997: FF 42.29 %; FG 11.32%; Lab 10.33%; PDs 3.48%; NP 3.24%; Others 29.35%.Outgoing TDs: Michael Smith and Michael O'Kennedy (FF), Michael Lowry (Ind).
The battle for the third seat here will be between Fianna Fáil's second candidate, Maire Hoctor, and Labour's Senator Kathleen O'Meara. Two seats in Tipperary North for FF has always meant power for them.
Will former Fine Gael minister Michael Lowry's appearances at the Moriarty tribunal affect his strong support base? Few expect that it will. In 1997, retiring FF TD Michael O'Kennedy won 9,895 first preferences. The Minister for Defence, Michael Smith, will be hoping to be so favoured today. Hoctor will then need to emulate Smith's own 1997 result of 7,000 votes if she is to see off the challenge of O'Meara. Can O'Meara restore her party's fortunes in a constituency in which John Ryan held a seat for so long? To do so, she has to improve significantly on her disappointing 4,126 first preferences in 1997. She should be able to do so, since the 1997 figure marked a halving of the Labour vote in the "Spring Tide" election of 1992. The showing of Fine Gael's Cllr Noel Coonan will offer a clue to whether the party can begin to restore its fortunes here. Early tallies will indicate if his transfers can keep O'Meara ahead of Hoctor.