Turkey wants to join the EU, but a planned adultery ban could threaten the country's chances of even starting membership talks, writes Denis Staunton.
In the chancelleries of Europe and the brasseries of Brussels, one issue is set to dominate all others this autumn - Turkey's ambition to join the European Union. Next month, the European Commission will report on Turkey's readiness to start negotiations that could lead to full EU membership, a prospect that some senior European politicians fear could lead to the collapse of the European project.
A debate in Turkey this week over the banning of adultery reinforces the fears of those in western Europe who maintain that Turkey is too big, too poor and - above all - too Islamic to incorporate into the EU. Despite an attempt by leaders of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to drop the adultery proposal, it could yet make its way into a reformed penal code.
EU politicians and officials have warned Turkey that the adultery ban could threaten the country's chances of starting membership negotiations, although the EU has little influence over such laws in its member states. Indeed, as the Economist observes in a leading article this week, the EU has previously accepted countries with laws on personal morality that are just as restrictive as those Turkey is proposing.
"Such measures themselves are mild compared, say, with the condition of Ireland when it joined in the 1970s. The Catholic Church then held sway over most of Irish public life, keeping such things as contraception, abortion and divorce all illegal," the paper says.
The Enlargement Commissioner, Guenther Verheugen, told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung last week that "an absolute no" to Turkey next month would be unjustified in view of the reforms Tayyip Erdogan's government has introduced. In recent years, Ankara has abolished the death penalty, lifted some restrictions on the use of the Kurdish language, banned sexual discrimination against women, outlawed all forms of torture, reduced the political power of the military, and removed some restrictions on religious liberty and freedom of expression.
"Turkey only has to be ready to join the EU by the end of the accession negotiations, which will last a very long time. But the enormous reform steps during the past few years prove that Turkey is capable of reaching European standards," Verheugen said.
The European Commission's report next month will form the basis for a decision by EU leaders in December that could lead to a start to negotiations with Turkey in early 2005. The EU first held out the prospect of membership to Turkey in 1963, a gesture that was repeated in 1970, 1978 and 1989. Five years ago, EU leaders granted Turkey the formal status of a candidate country but told Ankara that it needed to make major reforms.
Most of Verheugen's colleagues in the Commission share his sympathetic view of Turkey's ambitions but a significant minority believes that admitting Turkey to the EU would represent an enlargement too far. In a nine-page letter to Verheugen, the Agriculture Commissioner, Franz Fischler, outlined the case against Turkey - on economic, political and cultural grounds.
"An accession by Turkey to the EU would be unique in scope and degree compared to every other previous accession: Turkey is quite different in terms of history, geography and culture; it is substantially larger, more populated and poorer . . . Accession of such a country to the EU could have geo-strategic and institutional consequences that must be figured out, and thus have a major impact on the kind of Union we are going to have."
FISCHLER ENCLOSED with his letter an excerpt from a 2003 report on human rights practices in Turkey by the US State Department. It alleged "unlawful killing of people, torture, beatings and abuse of persons by the security forces", including 920 credible applications by torture victims. The report also noted restrictions on freedom of expression "with the detention of 82 news correspondents, distributors and editors and eight arrested journalists in 2003 alone". Washington, which supports Turkey's bid to join the EU, also reports "serious, widespread spousal abuse", estimating that one third of women are beaten by their husbands and one fifth by their fathers.
In a speech at Leiden University in the Netherlands last week, the Internal Market Commissioner, Frits Bolkestein, warned that admitting Turkey could cause the EU to "implode". He also warned that an EU that expands to admit Turkey could be dominated by Islam. Advocates of a start to accession negotiations with Ankara acknowledge that Turkey has much work to do before it can join the EU, and most expect membership talks to last at least 10 years. They warn, however, that closing the European door on Turkey could drive the next generation of Turks into the arms of Islamic radicals.
"It would create a very hostile atmosphere. Maybe Turkey would become an Islamic state like Iran and start building a nuclear capacity," said Germany's interior minister, Otto Schily. A high-level commission on Turkey, chaired by the former Finnish president, Martti Ahtisaari, reported last week that many fears surrounding Turkish accession, such as large migration flows into the rest of Europe, were exaggerated.
"Based on the experience of previous enlargement rounds, migration flows from Turkey are expected to be relatively modest, at a time when declining and ageing populations may be leading to a serious shortage of labour in many European countries, making immigration vital to the continuation of present generous systems of social security," the report said.
Emma Bonino MEP, a member of the commission that drew up the report, said that starting talks with Turkey was the best way to improve the position of women there.
"They need hope that their rights will move from paper to reality. If the door is closed they might be back to square one and accession is their guarantee toward maintaining the rights they have gained," she said.