Too early for verdict on Chirac leadership

THE BALANCE sheet of President Jacques Chirac's first year in office, marked voluminously in the French press yesterday, is a…

THE BALANCE sheet of President Jacques Chirac's first year in office, marked voluminously in the French press yesterday, is a and ambiguous one.

Those who set too much store by his pre election rhetoric and expected radical action against unemployment the so called fracture sociale from the Gaullist leader have been disappointed. He made a lot of promises then, including lower taxes, higher wages, and all out war on unemployment and social exclusion.

However, last October, after less than six months in power, these pledges were completely overturned with his declaration that henceforth nothing was more urgent than to reduce the huge deficits built up by the health system, the social services and other elements in France's sophisticated but very expensive welfare state.

Within a month, the proposals of his Prime Minister, Mr Alain Juppe, to implement the President's new policy by freezing public service pay, ending civil servants' retirement privileges, limiting health spending and rationalising the social security system, had sparked off the most dramatic series of strikes and popular protests since the events of May 1968.

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The strikes did not lead to any abandonment by the President of the austerity policies he is now determined to implement in order to restore confidence in France's public finances reduce the budget deficit in line with the Maastricht EMU criteria and generally push through the modernisation of the country's traditionally state led economy.

His plans are still moving, but more cautiously. However, with economic growth this year expected to be only 1.5 per cent, there is little chance of any significant decrease in France's nearly 12 per cent unemployment rate.

If President Chirac's turnaround on economic policy has yet to show any positive results, there is a general consensus in France that his foreign policy has taken on a new lease of life.

The high profile diplomacy of the past year from last summer's dispatch of a Franco British rapid reaction force to Bosnia to last month's joint initiative with the US to obtain a cease fire in Lebanon has pleased most sectors of French society. The French gain enormous satisfaction from seeing their presidents in the role of world statesmen, whether the style is that of Francois Mitterrand, clever and cajoling, or the blunter, more hectoring manner of Mr Chirac.

Last year's long running international controversy over Mr Chirac's decision to resume nuclear testing in the Pacific, tests which ended in February, has been largely forgotten in France.

As in most other countries, the President's standing at home is measured by his performance on the economy, and particularly on employment. Thus President Chirac is still faring poorly in the polls, with 55 per cent unfavourable to him in a recent poll.

However, even that is down from 63 per cent in January. As he has made clear on several occasions since last autumn's upheavals, his policies need time to mature, and he has six more years before any definitive balance sheet can be drawn up.