BRITAIN: Will Tory in-fighting and fear of change stop them from choosing the obvious leader candidates, asks James Blitz
The Conservative party faces a simple choice if it wants to shake up the British political scene over the next few years. It must choose either David Cameron or Kenneth Clarke to be its new leader.
David Davis proved in his conference speech in Blackpool this week that he is an uninspiring figure.
Liam Fox is a clever character with a sparkle in his eyes but he is too right wing to command support across the party or the country.
Mr Cameron has had the best week of any of the candidates and left Blackpool yesterday with the clearest forward momentum. The 38-year-old is intelligent and telegenic. Several newspapers are now starting to treat him seriously as the man they will endorse. More than any of his rivals, he understands the need for a root-and-branch overhaul of the Tory brand if the Conservatives are to have any chance of regaining power.
But if the Tories elect Mr Cameron they will take a big gamble.
When Tony Blair was elected Labour leader in 1994 at the age of 41, he had spent nearly a decade on the Labour front bench. When William Hague became Tory leader in 1997 at the age of 36, he was a former cabinet minister who had steered significant legislation through the Commons.
Mr Cameron, by contrast, has been in the Commons for four years.
He has promise, yes. But he is utterly untested. The question facing the Tories is whether - after trying out three failed leaders in a dismal eight years in opposition - they can afford another big throw of the dice.
Kenneth Clarke has both history and credibility. Of all the conference speeches delivered this week, his was the only one that credibly dented Gordon Brown's personality and record.
Mr Clarke can claim to have laid the foundations for the economic success that Labour has enjoyed since 1997. He is the best recognised of all the Conservatives. His election would instantly signal to the nation that the Tories were back in touch with the public mood.
Electing Mr Clarke, however, would also be a risk. Put aside the fact that he would go into the next election approaching his 70th birthday. The bigger problem is that he comes across as a lazy, bombastic figure, proud of his personal credibility but indifferent to the opinions of others. His pitch for the leadership does not go much beyond "I'm Ken - fly me".
We shall see over the next few weeks whether the Tories are rational enough to choose one of these two. But the omens are not promising. This has not been a bad week for the Tories but two features of this conference have been depressing.
First, the calls for the party to modernise and overhaul its image have stalled. Francis Maude, the party chairman, made a powerful case for this in one of the few conference speeches worth reading.
But Mr Davis and Mr Fox won strong applause when they warned against the party indulging in a "collective nervous breakdown" or "trashing its past".
The second depressing feature of this conference is how some of the party's brightest figures - David Willetts and Damian Green - seem to have put personal political calculation ahead of their One Nation principles. Both have backed Mr Davis, the leadership front-runner. But Mr Davis's views, such as his commitment to capital punishment for serial offenders and to diversity of funding for public services, seem so far from what Mr Willetts and Mr Green personally believe.
Such political calculation may, of course, propel Mr Davis to the leadership. But if the party is rational, its options lie elsewhere.
It can make the dramatic choice, going for the romance and inspiration of David Cameron, or it can go for the beery charisma of Ken Clarke - a man who, at the very least, will throw the focus of British politics on to the final agony of the Blair-Brown relationship.