BRITAIN:CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGER Boris Johnson has a 10-point lead over Labour's Ken Livingstone with just a month to go to polling day in London's mayoral election.
The latest YouGov poll for the Evening Standardshows support for Mr Johnson down two points at 47 per cent, but with Mr Livingstone's support static at 37 per cent.
The Liberal Democrat candidate Brian Paddock trails far behind at just 10 per cent.
Evidence of growing Conservative confidence that their man can oust the two-term mayor came yesterday when party leader David Cameron appeared at Mr Johnson's campaign launch in north London and described his candidate as "twice as charismatic, twice as energetic" as the incumbent.
Significantly, commentators on the capital's politics are now concluding that - while Mr Livingstone is still capable of a dramatic fightback - the race for City Hall is now Mr Johnson's to lose.
Tony Travers, director of the Greater London Group at the LSE, said the latest poll suggested London is now "seriously thinking about ejecting Livingstone" and that "longevity" in office may be emerging as Mr Livingstone's biggest problem.
The YouGov poll confirmed the mayor outpolling Mr Johnson when voters were asked which candidate would best deal with a terrorist attack or which was best placed to improve the lives of minority communities.
However, the mayor is battling a perception that crime has risen despite statistics showing it to have fallen, and, despite widespread praise for the original introduction of the congestion charge, opinion is divided as to whether travel has got easier.
"In other words, for all Ken's efforts, people do not appear to feel he has made much difference," Mr Travers told Standard readers.
"That being the case, London's voters appear ready to evict him in favour of the other side. Put another way, Ken's main problem is longevity, being in City Hall for eight years. Unlike the Daley family's Chicago, the London electorate is unlikely to want to keep the same mayor for 10 or 20 years."
While Mr Livingstone is campaigning for re-election as "Ken", Mr Cameron also sought to saddle him with the Labour government's unpopularity.
"He's given up his independent status and is now effectively the Labour government's representative. And he's displaying the same arrogance and intolerance of criticism we associate with Gordon Brown," charged the Tory leader, while developing the theme he expects to replay in the general election.
"Londoners have got to ask themselves: do we really want four more years of the same? The answer is 'no'. But if people want change they have to vote for it. If the majority that wants things to be better doesn't vote on May 1st then there's a real risk Ken Livingstone will still be in charge in four years' time."
Mr Livingstone launched his housing manifesto yesterday, promising 50,000 new affordable homes if re-elected.
The mayor said he was determined to help young Londoners onto the property ladder, "unlike Boris Johnson whose policies would have the effect of concentrating housing in high-priced and luxury development, pricing housing out of the hands of ordinary Londoners."