Tories need 11.5% swing to win

On the face of it Labour looks extremely hard to beat

On the face of it Labour looks extremely hard to beat. Six hundred and fifty nine Westminster seats are up for grabs but the Tories require a remarkable 11.5 per cent swing to win a majority.

Predictions of voter apathy could be a problem for Labour whose landslide victory of four years ago resulting in a 179-seat Commons majority was actually won with the lowest turnout, 71.5 per cent, since 1935. So, even relatively small swings in key battleground seats could change the electoral map dramatically.

Labour's most marginal seat is Wellingborough in the Midlands, which they won with a majority of 187, but realistically could afford to lose if the national picture sees them returned with another huge majority.

Labour's vote is more vulnerable in the midlands and the north-west than it is in London and the south-east where, if the Conservatives are to rebuild support they must win back Putney, Hammersmith and Fulham and Croydon Central.

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About two million Conservative voters deserted the party last time and just 165 MPs were returned. The road back to government can only begin if they win back those voters, particularly in Romford and Birmingham Edgbaston. The Conservatives' top target is Leominster which went to Labour when Mr Peter TempleMorris defected, but it is also mounting a strong challenge against Labour in seats such as Kettering and Northampton South in the Midlands which could fall with a one per cent swing.

In Scotland, the Conservatives could recapture Glasgow's Eastwood seat from Labour with a swing of just 3.1 per cent and stand a good chance in Edinburgh Pentlands where former Tory minister, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, requires a swing of 5.3 per cent. Seventy two Westminster seats are at stake in Scotland and the Scottish National Party is running second place behind Labour in the polls. As such, the SNP could pick off several Labour seats, including Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber where they need a 2.5 swing.

The main interest in Wales will be whether the Conservatives can reverse their 1997 wipeout and take Monmouth, which they won in the Assembly elections in 1999. Labour holds 34 of the 40 Welsh seats, but a strong challenge from the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, could see them take several Labour strongholds in the Welsh Valleys and its top target of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, which requires a 4.1 per cent swing.

The Liberal Democrats, buoyed by positive opinion poll ratings, will hope to improve on their tally of 46 MPs and their best chances are in West Country seats lost to the Conservatives such as Teignbridge and Totnes.

Millions of voters will also be electing representatives to almost 2,500 seats on 34 county councils and 11 unitary authorities in England and the Isle of Wight. The Conservatives are expected to do particularly well at local level.