SPECULATION ABOUT a possible general election in the first half of next year has been fuelled by a new poll showing the Conservative lead shrinking fast in the face of Britain's deepening economic crisis.
That crisis last night left some 27,000 Woolworths staff facing a bleak Christmas after administrators warned all 807 of the chain's high street stores will close by January 5th unless a last-minute buyer is found. The news added to a widening sense of gloom on a day that saw UK unemployment hit a 10-year high amid warnings from the Bank of England that it may rise to more than 3 million during the current recession.
Confirmation of a sharp fall in Tory support - ICM now has the gap between David Cameron's Conservatives and Labour at just five points - came as prime minister Gordon Brown confirmed that the British mission in Iraq will end next May, with UK forces finally leaving that country in July.
That would be considered a positive factor by Labour strategists contemplating an election in the late spring or early summer. However, some commentators refuse to discount the possibility of an election as early as February or March while Mr Brown wrestles with the dilemma - whether to try and capitalise on current public confidence in his stewardship of the economy, or gamble on his policies being seen to have worked in time for a contest by June 2010.
The continuing perils for Mr Brown as a "war leader" were also dramatically underlined yesterday as he declared his pride that British forces would "leave Iraq a better place". He was speaking after talks with Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad not far from the scene of a twin bomb attack in which at least 18 people were killed and dozens more injured. At Westminster, meanwhile, MPs paid tribute to the latest British fatality in Afghanistan amid growing unease about the UK's increasing military engagement there.
Uncertainty and disagreement about the economy dominated the Westminster exchanges in Mr Brown's absence, as Mr Cameron's stand-in, William Hague, asked Commons leader Harriet Harman how many Britons would have to lose their jobs before the prime minister lost his.
New figures released yesterday showed the number of unemployment benefit claims rising to more than one million for the first time in eight years, while the overall number for unemployed people - including those not eligible for benefits - rose by 137,000 in the quarter to October to 1.86 million, the highest for 10 years.
While the Conservatives maintained their attack on the alleged failings of government efforts to kick-start the economy, however, the ICM poll for the Guardian put Mr Brown 11 points ahead of Mr Cameron as the leader most likely to get the economy on track.
In a sign of voters' volatility, Mr Cameron still leads Mr Brown, by four points, as the man with most potential as prime minister. However, the poll showed Conservative support falling just below the crucial 40 per cent needed if Mr Cameron is to be confident of winning the largest number of seats in a new parliament.