BRITAIN: The British Prime Minister looks to be in trouble on several fronts. Frank Millar in London sketches Mr Blair's current state of political health
"A prime minister in panic and a government on the run." That was Michael Howard's optimistic assessment yesterday as he and Tony Blair clashed over Iraq, immigration and the proposed British referendum on the European constitution.
And the Conservative leader seems to scent blood as the commentariat continues to focus on Mr Blair's shelf life and whether the decision to hold a referendum has placed an effective time-limit on his premiership.
While neither a particularly bruising encounter, nor a one-way affair, Mr Howard landed a few blows over last week's "shambles" over Europe and this week's abrupt about-turn on immigration.
Why had the prime minister begun last Thursday's cabinet meeting with an apology, he wondered. And when did he decide to make Tuesday's speech declaring Britain to be at a "crunch point" on immigration? With the first thrust Mr Howard niggled at the simmering discontent of some senior ministers about last week's spectacular U-turn on a referendum and Mr Blair's failure to consult them in advance of his Commons statement. With the second he paved the way for a now familiar part of his despatch box performance, during which he likes to flutter some government document or other before the prime minister.
Labour MPs laughed as Mr Blair spluttered he found Mr Howard's question "extraordinary" and affirmed he had decided to make the speech addressing concerns about immigration "months ago".
However, the laughter was quickly on the other side as Mr Howard quoted a note to Labour MPs alerting them to important ministerial speeches planned for this week. Needless to say, Mr Blair's was not among them. And Mr Howard then offered his own explanation for the question, suggesting "people need to know whether the prime minister is thinking more than a day ahead, on anything."
Tory MPs liked this depiction of a panicky government sounding tough on migration, yet still unable to table its promised new regulations, just three days before the 10 new accession countries join the EU. Plainly, too, Mr Howard thinks mockery over the referendum U-turn and sharp questioning about the ongoing difficulties facing the coalition in Iraq all combine to further erode Mr Blair's reputation for trust.
Yet Mr Howard remains deeply unconvincing whenever he attempts to distance his party in any way from the war, which it was prepared to support whether or not Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. He was particularly so yesterday when he pegged his question on the subject to the criticisms levelled at Mr Blair earlier this week by 52 former British diplomats, most of whom had opposed the war in the first place.
Mr Howard did not repeat their suggestion that Mr Blair was too slavish in his devotion to America, or that their policies in Iraq or the Middle East might be "doomed". However, he did wonder if Mr Blair thought there might be "anything" to their contention that there had been insufficient planning for the post-conflict situation in Iraq. And he suggested Mr Blair "grossly misunderstood" parliamentary democracy if he implied that support for the war denied him the right to ask legitimate questions about its conduct and aftermath. He asked whether the proposed new Iraqi authority would have any say in relation to the deployment of allied troops and the treatment of "insurgents" arrested by them.
Mr Blair did not repeat the usual charge of "opportunism", although he tartly suggested he might have hoped he (and British troops on the ground) would have Mr Howard's total support "unless he was suggesting some alternative" course of action.
There is the real possibility that attempts to exploit Mr Blair's difficulties (for which read the dangers confronting service personnel on the ground) could backfire badly on the Conservative leadership. That said, the Tories are landing some blows on this government and seem set to give them a drubbing in the European elections come June. Number 10 is acutely aware that it is not just the Tories who fancy something much worse awaits Mr Blair on the far side of a general election he is expected to win next year.
Polly Toynbee wondered in yesterday's Guardian whether Gordon Brown might offer the better hope of winning the referendum. For Mr Blair it seems there is still no escaping the war or the question of a Brown succession.