Fine Gael, on paper, seems set to win the by-election caused by the death of its Tipperary South TD, Mrs Theresa Ahearn. It has a strong candidate in Senator Tom Hayes, who polled well against tough odds in last June's by-election in the constituency, and he should easily overcome the challenge from Fianna Fail and Labour.
But Mr Hayes will have to contend with other opposition, the strength of which is not easily quantifiable. The Independent TD for the constituency, Mr Seamus Healy, who had a spectacular victory in the by-election, has confirmed his Workers and Unemployed Action Group will run a candidate.
Clonmel-based Mr Healy headed the poll the last time, with 9,419 votes, ahead of Mr Hayes, from Golden, who had 8,184 votes. If Mr Healy manages to transfer a considerable proportion of his vote to his candidate, Mr Hayes could have a battle on his hands. Mr Healy told The Irish Times that his organisation's candidate, who has yet to be chosen, will be putting a strong emphasis on economic issues and sleaze. "The Celtic Tiger has bypassed many parts of Tipperary South."
The speculation in the constituency is that the Independent candidate will be Ms Phil Prendergast, from Clonmel, who works as a midwife in the local St Joseph's Hospital. Ms Prendergast won a seat on Tipperary South Riding County Council in the Clonmel electoral area, where Mr Healy headed the poll, in last year's local elections, and also serves with the Independent TD, and two other colleagues, as an alderman on Clonmel Corporation.
While it is certain that Mr Hayes will be the Fine Gael candidate, the party had made no decision on when it will move the writ for the by-election. Mrs Ahearn, who faced her terminal illness with considerable fortitude, advised her colleagues when they visited her in hospital before she died to go for an early by-election.
However, some party sources believe there is a danger of voter-fatigue in Tipperary South, given that there were local and European elections last year, and a by-election last June, when the turnout was 57.33 per cent.
That by-election was caused by the death of the Labour TD, Mr Michael Ferris. His widow, Ms Ellen Ferris, who was the Labour candidate, has ruled herself out this time. The party's candidate is expected to be its sole county councillor, Mr Denis Landy, from Carrick-on-Suir, who will face an uphill struggle.
Tipperary South was once a Labour stronghold - Mr Sean Treacy held a seat there for several years, before leaving the party, and Mr Ferris did well to survive the swing against Labour in the last general election. But a disastrous performance in last year's local elections, as well as Mrs Ferris's failure to retain her husband's seat, has made the constituency a black spot for the party. Labour's 16.79 per cent of the vote in the by-election was only marginally up on its general election vote.
The battle for the Fianna Fail nomination is expected to be between its June by-election candidate, Mr Barry O'Brien, a Clogheen-based county councillor, and Mr Michael Maguire, a Lattin East-based county councillor, who was an unsuccessful candidate in the last general election. In that election, the sitting Fianna Fail TD, Mr Noel Davern, later appointed Minister of State for Agriculture, topped the poll with 8,995 votes, while Mr Maguire was fifth with 4,151 votes.
Last April, in the run-up to the Fianna Fail by-election convention, there was speculation that the Taoiseach's adviser on Northern Ireland, Dr Martin Mansergh, might seek a nomination, although it was believed he would only allow his name to go forward if he was guaranteed the nomination. Dr Mansergh, who has family connections with Tipperary, was not available for comment when his office was contacted by The Irish Times.
Fianna Fail will be anxious not to repeat its poor performance of the last by-election when Mr O'Brien, who was expected to head the poll, trailed Mr Healy and Mr Hayes in first preferences, as the party's vote slumped by 14.5 per cent. The result was major embarrassment for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and his party, with some backbenchers concerned it might be repeated nationally in a general election.
At the time, Mr Davern, who was director of elections, blamed external factors, such as the Hugh O'Flaherty affair, and elements within the party who were unhappy with Mr O'Brien's nomination. Mr Ahern, who conceded that the result was "particularly disappointing", will be expecting more from whoever is given the poisoned chalice of director of elections this time.