Mr Peter McLoone, general secretary of IMPACT, summed up the strongest argument for the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (PPF) succinctly yesterday when he asked opponents to come up with anything better. While few trade union leaders are campaigning strongly for the new agreement at this stage, few are campaigning against it.
The Irish secretary of the Amalgamated Transport Union, Mr Michael O'Reilly says the "percentage increases in the deal are totally inadequate to meet the real costs facing workers now and in the future". He says the wage increase is worth 6.4 per cent after inflation, assuming an annualised inflation rate of over 3.5 per cent. Under Partnership 2000 inflation was around 2 per cent.
Even accepting Mr O'Reilly's projections, strong groups such as construction workers or IT specialists would be hard pressed to do better in a free for all. The bottom quartile of workers in vulnerable, labour intensive industries would do much worse.
Most union executives have yet to discuss the package, and the unions are taking plenty of time to consult members. There was a lot of criticism that Partnership 2000 was rushed through.
At the level of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions executive there was unanimity that it was the best deal possible from the national talks process, but unions would have split if recommending the package had been put to a vote. Besides, even supporters of the deal do not want a situation where they expend all their energy defending their decision to recommend the deal instead of expounding its merits.
The days are gone when trade unionists simply took their lead from a general secretary or president. Most of them are now economically literate enough to make up their own minds.
So what is on offer? In the private sector there is a 33-month package providing 5.5 per cent this year, 5.5 per cent next year and four per cent in the last nine months of the deal. This is worth 15.75 per cent cumulatively, or 17.24 per cent on an annualised basis. These increases will kick in at various times between April 1st and the year's end, depending on local sectoral agreements.
For low paid workers there is a "floor", or minimum payment of £12 in the first year, £11 in the second year and £9 in the last nine months. On top of this there is a special social welfare package which exempts the first £200 a week from PRSI and raises the exemption level for the health levy from £226 to £280 a week.
This is worth around £5 a week, which will push their cumulative pay increases over the 33 months to around 20.5 per cent.
For higher paid groups in the private sector there is provision for gain sharing. Its effectiveness will depend in large measure on the good will of individual employers. This could prove especially problematic in sectors such as construction. If a sectoral agreement is not reached there we could see a repeat of last year's unofficial strikes.
In the public service the same phased increases will kick in from October 1st each year for over 220,000 employees. For about half of them, including teachers and many civil servants, there will be an extra three per cent paid in October because they were "early settlers". The three per cent is a catch-up award to narrow the gap with "late settlers" such as nurses, paramedics and gardai.
The estimated cost of these increases to the Exchequer will be £115 million this year, £570 million in 2001, £950 million in 2002 and £1.2 billion in 2003. This represents a cumulative increase in the public service pay bill of 17 per cent.
The deal also allows for the introduction of a new "bench marking system", which is another attempt to move away from relativities in deciding public sector pay. The last attempt was the "restructuring" clause of the Programme for Economic and Social Progress. It ended in disaster. The ceiling of 3 per cent grew to 5.5 per cent and then to over 15 per cent with the nurses.
The new system attempts to link change in the public service - and the price for it - to private sector comparators. It remains to be seen if this succeeds.
Ultimately pay rates in both the private and public sectors will be determined by factors such as the rate of inflation and unemployment levels. By negotiating another agreement employers and trade unionists are implicitly accepting they are all better off staying inside the tent.