ANALYSIS:While the controversy over David Norris's remarks on paedophilia seems not to have affected his rating, a poor showing by Éamon Ó Cuív will support the case against a Fianna Fáil candidate
THE RACE for the Áras is wide open, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, which indicates the outcome will be decided on transfers.
With five declared candidates in the field and Fianna Fáil yet to make up its mind on whether to enter the race, the poll shows Senator David Norris is in the lead – although he has yet to nail down a nomination.
Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell and Labour’s Michael D Higgins are snapping at Norris’s heels, and both will fancy their chances of overtaking him once their campaigns get into full swing.
The relatively strong showing of Independents Seán Gallagher and Mary Davis, who have both received indications of nominations from at least four county councils, is one of the surprises of the poll.
Both of them are ahead of Fianna Fáil’s Éamon Ó Cuív, whose poor showing demonstrates that the party is still in real difficulties.
The poll will strengthen the hand of those in the party who believe Fianna Fáil should not contest the election.
All of the declared candidates can take some solace from the poll.
The fact Norris is in the lead despite being rebuffed by a number of county councils should strengthen his claims to a nomination from 19 fellow members of the Oireachtas.
The controversy over his comments on paedophilia does not appear to have damaged his standing in the eyes of the electorate, and he will be a strong contender if he manages to get a nomination.
The pressure will now be on Independent TDs and Senators to sign Norris’s nomination papers and allow him to contest the office.
Gay Mitchell will fancy his chances of pulling ahead of Norris once the Fine Gael party machine is cranked up around the country to get the vote out for him. It will be no easy task, however, and Mitchell will have to pull well ahead of the field if he is to be elected.
The poll shows the Fine Gael candidate does poorly when it comes to attracting second preferences – and that could prove fatal for him.
Given that voters do not rate political experience as an important asset, he will need a solid first-preference tally to win.
Fewer than half the declared Fine Gael supporters give their first preference to Mitchell, and this represents both a problem and an opportunity for him.
The problem is that unless he can get a solid Fine Gael vote, he will not win the presidency.
On the positive side, there is a strong Fine Gael vote there to be harnessed, but it will take a big and united effort by the party organisation to deliver it.
Curiously, Higgins has a similar problem, with fewer than half the Labour voters declaring for him.
Like Mitchell, he will have to win over more of his own party supporters to his side to be in with a chance.
A big positive for Higgins is that he is more transfer-friendly than Mitchell.
If he can pull ahead of either his Fine Gael rival or Norris before the final count, then he will be in with a strong chance of winning the presidency on transfers.
Gallagher and Davis are also in with an outside chance at this stage, particularly if Fianna Fáil does not put up a candidate.
Both have managed to build a national profile as they have sought support from county councils to get on the ballot paper.
Davis, in particular, has an opportunity to move up the field, given her ability to attract transfers and her appeal to Fianna Fáil supporters.
Ó Cuív’s showing will encourage those in Fianna Fáil who do not want to put up a candidate.
While he is attracting a reasonable level of support in Connacht/Ulster, the poll indicates he has no realistic hope of winning the office held by his grandfather.
There is now a strong argument for the party to opt out of the race and back one of the Independents.
An interesting feature of the poll, and one that could have a decisive impact on the outcome, is that voters believe choosing the candidate who will best represent Ireland is easily the most important issue facing them.
When asked which of a number of options was most important in deciding which candidate to support, 38 per cent of voters wanted a candidate who could represent Ireland well; 17 per cent wanted honesty, and 9 per cent opted for personality.
Just 3 per cent said a candidate’s political experience was the most important factor, while only 2 per cent said a candidate’s party affiliation was most important.
The task now facing all of the candidates is to convince the voters they can best represent Ireland.
Whichever of them can do this most successfully will win.
