THE centre left Olive coalition led by an economics professor, Dr Romano Prodi, early this morning stood on the threshold of an historic but narrow Italian general election win.
If the trend of initial results is confirmed, Italy has elected its first left wing government of the post war period, a government in which the dominant force is the communist Democratic Left (PDS).
With more than 75 per cent of votes for the Senate counted by early morning, analysts were predicting that the Olive coalition in alliance with the ultra left Rifondazione Communista would poll 44.4 per cent of the vote as opposed to 39.3 per cent for the centre right Freedom Alliance led by the media tycoon, Mr Silvio Berlusconi.
Although the centre left's victory margin would appear narrow, Professor Prodi broke the ice with a virtual victory speech early this morning, saying I want to tell all Italians that, even if the first results are provisional, it isn't easy for me to hide my sense of commotion.
It would seem that we're going to record a win in the Senate that goes far beyond our expectations and hopes. The country has expressed a desire for good government, good government without trauma for a country that needs to turn over a new leaf and that good government has already found expression in the performance of the lira which in the last few minutes has gained point after point on international currency markets. .
"It is not us who've won but our programme, our political proposals and woe unto us if we don't stick to our proposals... I can assure all Italians that if the results continue along these lines, then we will form the next government and we will govern for all Italians."
Inevitably, centre right exponents were more cautious in their interpretation of the initial results with the former foreign minister, Mr Antonio Martino, telling reporters that the enthusiasm of the left was premature and that a very different picture may have emerged by late this afternoon, when the definitive results become available.
Mr Antonio Tajiani, former spokesman for Mr Berlusconi and a deputy for the Berlusconi party "Forza Italia", also warned against premature conclusions, saying. Projections and opinion polls can be unreliable and I believe that in fact there is still little to choose between the two factions.
"If the Olive should turn out to be the winner, then this country will have real problems concerning its government because the Olive will be relying on the support of Rifondazione Communista to govern and I cannot see how the they will reach agreement on a question like the Budget bill."
While the politicians and analysts argued about interpretations of the vote, grass roots Olive supporters had no doubts, gathering outside the movement's Rome headquarters for a spontaneous victory celebration and waving banners and flags every time a cameraman or reporter came in sight.
A senior PDS deputy, Mr Luigi Berlinguer, cousin of the former Italian Communist Party leader, Mr Enrico Berlinguer, expressed the popular mood of his party when he broke ranks to tell reporters early in the count "We've won, we've waited 40 years for this moment."
While the centre left victory seems certain, the size of that victory remains difficult to predict. Most importantly, it was not clear this morning whether the Olive had won the 315 lower house seats, necessary for a working parliamentary majority.
Initial trends suggest that the Olive may win such a majority but only thanks to the support of Rifondazione Communista, a party with which the Olive made an electoral pact but a party which would not be included in an Olive government.
Clearly, one of Professor Prodi's first and biggest problems will be clarifying a potentially difficult and crippling relationship with the ultra left Marxist party.
If indeed the Olive has won, then Professor Prodi has pulled off a remarkable victory against the odds and one in which his emphasis on social justice issues as well as market oriented economics has triumphed over Mr Berlusconi's televisual salesmanship of his entrepreneurial skills.