THE UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, has denied doing a parliamentary "deal" with Mr John Major, or promising his party's support for the Prime Minister in any confidence vote which might arise in the House of Commons.
It is also understood the UUP leader has not seen the full text of a draft letter from Mr Major to Mr John Hume, the SDLP leader, setting out the terms for Sinn Fein's entry into multi party talks.
At the same time, senior Conservative sources have echoed Mr Trimble's belief that Mr Major is set to reject republican conditions for a second IRA ceasefire.
Last night, 10 Downing Street refused to speculate about correspondence between Mr Major and Mr Hume, or the possibility that it would subsequently be published in the form of a newspaper article. But Mr Hume was expecting Mr Major's reply to proposals which he believes could secure the Unequivocal restoration" of the ceasefire, and it is understood Number 10 had been advised of the SDLP leader's movements and engagements in order to facilitate delivery.
However, reports of continuing discussions between London and Dublin added to uncertainty about the timing of Mr Major's move, and SDLP optimism was dampened by weekend reports in the British press that Mr Major and Mr Trimble had arrived at a deal over future Commons votes. Mr Hume warned against allowing the "numbers game" at Westminster to influence the government's response to his proposals.
Mr Trimble again insisted the Ulster Unionists "are not committed to any party" and would judge each issue on merit. But while denying a deal, Mr Trimble said: "I believe the Prime Minister is going to sign off his exchanges with John Hume, and is doing so by sending him a re statement of policy. It will not be the answer John Hume wanted. I don't think there will be a ceasefire before March - the IRA and Sinn Fein have no intention of having one."
Unionist sources claim this is also Mr Major's assessment, and senior Whitehall sources say it fits with the analysis of the security services.
Usually reliable sources told The Irish Times Mr Major would reject demands for Sinn Fein's automatic entry into multi party talks following the re instatement of the ceasefire, and the suggestion that those talks should operate within a fixed timescale.
"There's no way those demands are going to be met," one source said. Another said: "I don't think the prime minister has any room for manoeuvre, or even wants any in fairness. It's a matter of keeping ourselves in the most advantageous position. Everybody knows nothing is going to happen until after the general election.
On one reading, those predictions appear borne out by Mr Michael Ancram's assertion on BBC radio that "we're not in the business of seeking any compromise to achieve a ceasefire". The Northern Ireland Minister of State said: "We've made it clear that our policy is known, is publicly established, and if we are required to re assert it we will do so. But we are not in the business of changing policy in order to achieve a ceasefire which should never have been ended in the first place."
A renewed ceasefire would have to be "consistent both in word and deed, to achieve the degree of confidence that would first of all allow the Secretary of State under statute to invite them (Sinn Fein) into the talks, but secondly give the confidence to those in the talks to participate with them," Mr Ancram said.
Yesterday, the chairman of Sinn Fein, Mr Mitchel McLaughlin rejected Mr Ancram's comments. He said that the British government could not, nor would it be allowed to, absolve itself of the primary responsibility for the reinstatement of a credible peace process". He said Mr Major held the key to peace in Ireland and he knew exactly what could be achieved. "He must state in clear and unequivocal terms whether or not he would treat a renewed IRA ceasefire as he did the last one."