David Trimble still has to combat the nay-sayers and battle to unitehis party at an Ulster Unionist Council this Saturdaybut, asks Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor, do better dayslie ahead?
Speculation about a possible second IRA act of decommissioning, fuelled a little by Sir Ronnie Flanagan yesterday, is starting to ignite. It's unlikely, however, to happen before Saturday, when Mr David Trimble must again face a Ulster Unionist Council annual meeting to be re-elected as Ulster Unionist Party leader.
This time any IRA move on weapons may be more in the electoral interests of Sinn Féin in the South than in safeguarding Mr Trimble's position.
The First Minister survived nine UUC convocations since the Belfast Agreement of April 1998 - some of them just barely because of the absence of IRA disarmament - but he now appears more in control.
Of course, if the IRA did seal another bunker or two to boost Sinn Féin's general election prospects, Mr Trimble would happily exploit it to challenge the tactics of his internal opponents.
At the moment the anti-Trimbleites in the UUP seem weary and disheartened. Even a No campaigner as staunch as Mr David Burnside MP finds it preferable to be in New Zealand on a Westminster agriculture mission this weekend than at the UUC gathering.
None of the UUP's senior figures appear to have the stomach to mount a challenge against Mr Trimble's leadership, although that is not to rule out someone down the anti-agreement pecking order, such as a Young Unionist, acting as a stalking horse.
Mr Jeffrey Donaldson warned this week that if there was no further action on arms then sanctions should be reimposed against Sinn Féin. A solid 40 per cent of the 900-member UUC probably still holds to that view, and Mr Trimble won't want to antagonise them any more than is necessary on Saturday.
So, one can expect harsh words for Sinn Féin and the IRA, and also for the loyalist paramilitaries from the First Minister. Indeed, there could be some hint of action against Sinn Féin down the line in the absence of further IRA disarmament. However, he would be loath to recommend imposing immediate sanctions, or spell out in detail what such sanctions might be.
Mr Trimble may also criticise the British government over the proposed amnesty for the OTRs, the "on the runs". These are mostly republicans wanted for various forms of paramilitary activity, including murder. This would make sense as this is an issue around which the party could unite.
The Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, and his Northern Ireland Office ministers have been active in trying to ensure a fair wind for Mr Trimble ahead of Saturday. In Galway at the weekend, he urged nationalists not to think in terms of a simple Catholic/Protestant head-count in Northern Ireland, and to reassure unionists that a united Ireland was not inevitable.
On the BBC on Monday, he was at pains to repeat a number of times that the British government valued "Northern Ireland being part of the United Kingdom".
And in the House of Commons this week, NIO junior minister Mr Des Browne, much to the annoyance of the SDLP and Sinn Féin, amended the Criminal Justice Bill to retain the British royal crest outside Northern court houses and inside where they were judged of historical or architectural merit. The British union flag will also be allowed to fly over court buildings on 20 designated days each year.
Mr Trimble on Saturday may point to these little victories. He probably will also focus on how the Policing Board, against expectations, is working well; how he enjoys a good professional relationship with SDLP leader and Deputy First Minister Mr Mark Durkan; how politics is bedding down and while there are remaining problems the centre is holding and even strengthening.
When compared with the past four years of turmoil, Mr Trimble, with fingers crossed, must be wondering if his luck is about to turn for the better.