Northern Ireland today begins a countdown to political collapse or political rescue as Ulster Unionist leader Mr David Trimble embarks on a process designed to result in all five UUP and DUP ministers withdrawing from the executive.
While crisis point could be reached today, informed sources said Mr Trimble may delay withdrawing his ministers in order to buy a "10-day period of grace" to test whether the IRA would move on arms.
There is political consensus that without such action the Belfast Agreement could begin to implode.
Republican sources have confirmed that intense debate continues in the republican movement over whether this is the appropriate time to make a substantive move on arms - an action that should stabilise the agreement. Mr Trimble, by tabling his exclusion motion against Sinn FΘin in the Assembly today, is determined to force the issue of IRA decommissioning to some form of quick conclusion, a senior aide said yesterday.
Dublin, London and Washington are maintaining their pressure on the IRA to begin putting weapons beyond use, but so far senior Sinn FΘin figures have insisted that while they too want the issue resolved "unionist ultimatums" are hindering this goal.
Dublin and London sources said that short of a significant IRA gesture on arms the Northern Secretary, Dr Reid, will have little option other than to call a review of the agreement and indefinitely suspend the executive, Assembly and other institutions of the Belfast Agreement. These sources added that he is unlikely to call elections.
Today's expulsion motion against Sinn FΘin is virtually certain to fail because it will not have the support of the SDLP, as is required under the cross-community legislation of the agreement.
Mr Trimble has so far refused to say whether his three ministers will walk out of the executive tomorrow. As soon as the UUP ministers pull out the two DUP ministers are pledged to do the same.
Informed sources, however, said yesterday that Mr Trimble would delay the ministerial resignations for a matter of days.
Under legislation Dr Reid will then have seven further days before he must decide what action to take. His main option is understood to be review and indefinite suspension.
There has been intense speculation in recent days that the IRA is prepared to make a gesture on arms. However, because it has portrayed today's Assembly exclusion motion as a "unionist ultimatum", it could abandon any plans for such a move or possibly delay them until the period of review has begun in order to argue that such action was not a direct response to unionist pressure.
Reports in Saturday's Daily Telegraph and yesterday's Observer that the Sinn FΘin education minister, Mr Martin McGuinness, was recently appointed chief of staff of the IRA are likely to intensify what is expected to be an acrimonious debate today. Sinn FΘin denied the claims.
The security sources cited for the claims said this was likely to increase the prospects of IRA action on weapons because it indicated that the more hardline members of the IRA army council were sidelined.
Sinn FΘin said that if Mr Trimble began to withdraw his ministers and collapse the executive, the only option open to Dr Reid under the agreement would be to call a review and then elections for a new Assembly.
Meanwhile, politicians said they believed the IRA was close to decommissioning. Mr David Ervine, the leader of the Progressive Unionist Party, said such a move was inevitable.
"I think the Provos are going to do it," Mr Ervine told the BBC on Saturday. "I think it's inevitable that the republicans will put weapons beyond use . . ."
Mrs Br∅d Rodgers of the SDLP said she was optimistic that IRA decommissioning would take place. "I am optimistic because if you look at Martin McGuinness's speech to his party's ardfheis last week, he acknowledged decommissioning was a real issue of legitimate concern for the unionist people," she said.
"Once you acknowledge that, there is an implication that you will build confidence. If you recognise that decommissioning is a legitimate issue of concern, there is a corollary to that and that is movement on weapons," she said.