In a recent column for this newspaper, Dr Garret FitzGerald said living at a critical point in history was like being in a shuttered mansion wearing a blindfold and wondering what it looked like outside.
In the position he describes one has to take a chance, make your best guess and hope it's right. The Taoiseach and the Northern Secretary took a chance by releasing republican prisoners to attend Sinn Fein's Sunday ardfheis.
They presumably thought it would help copperfasten support for Sinn Fein leaders as they sought to turn the republican movement to a position of participating in a six-county assembly and supporting change in Articles 2 and 3.
Who knows how these decisions will look with 20-20 hindsight? At this early stage it looks as if Mr Ahern and Dr Mowlam were unwise from the viewpoint of getting maximum unionist support for the Belfast Agreement on May 22nd.
Dr Mowlam admitted as much last night when she apologised for any hurt caused by her decision. Mr Ahern toughed it out: No campaigners were negative about everything.
"It has certainly not helped things one little bit," unionist Yes campaigners said in Belfast yesterday. Given the enormous majority obtained by the Sinn Fein leaders, they observed that the appearance of the Balcombe Street gang and the other prisoners was not critical to the result.
Close observers of the unionist political scene said the triumphal appearance of the Balcombe Street prisoners had gone down like a lead balloon. It had deeply angered members of the unionist community and was "like Christmas for the No lobby". The referendum is sewn up on the nationalist side in Northern Ireland and has been from Day One. The real battle is on the unionist side. Observers agree enough unionists are likely to vote Yes to secure passage of the agreement but there are mixed views as to whether they will constitute a majority of unionist opinion.
A significant proportion of unionists remain undecided, and the prisoner issue is the one that probably concerns them most. The subtleties of constitutional law are for another day, but the prospect of persons convicted of paramilitary offences freed to walk the streets is alarming and upsetting to unionists - without necessarily being a source of delight to all nationalists either.
The significance of a high No vote goes beyond the referendum. It has implications for the assembly elections at the end of June. If the anti-agreement forces win enough assembly seats, they can prevent it from functioning properly and thereby wreck the chances of a North-South Ministerial Council.
Today's visit by the UK Chancellor, Mr Gordon Brown, to unveil an economic support package for Northern Ireland may generate some goodwill, although it is already being condemned by No campaigners as a form of bribery.
Sinn Fein sources are unapologetic about the walk-on by the prisoners at the ardfheis, claiming unionist politicians are hypocrites because they have visited convicted loyalist killers at the Maze. Some observers wonder if the real agenda at work in allowing the prisoners to attend the RDS last Sunday was an attempt to shore up the mainstream Provisional leadership against the "new" IRA set up by the dissidents.
There is still a significant element in the unionist community prepared to give the agreement a chance on the basis it might bring about a peaceful and stable Northern Ireland in which they can rear their children. These are the people who could yet ensure the agreement gets an endorsement of 70 per cent or greater.