Troubled Taoiseach unlikely to take political gamble

Bertie Ahern has been travelling a lot lately: Zagreb last week, New York this weekend, and the question some people are asking…

Bertie Ahern has been travelling a lot lately: Zagreb last week, New York this weekend, and the question some people are asking is whether he will pick up some foreign tips along the way.

Will he do an Ehud Barak and call a snap election in a gamble to get his party through a difficult patch or will he seek to emulate Canada's Jean Chretien, who went to the polls 18 months early in a successful attempt to swap his tottering government for an overall majority? It could be catching.

The truth is there is little such speculation. The Government is going through a torrid time, which even a good Budget may do little to alleviate and may, in some circumstances, even worsen. The electorate is in an unpredictable mood and going on the last IMS poll figures, no party would do well and certainly none could afford to take such a gamble. Bertie has never been a gambler and is unlikely to start now. His first priority this week is to repair some of the damage inflicted by the taxi debacle. Fianna Fail has been damaged by this one, mainly north of the Liffey where many of the taxi-drivers live and where they are used to being listened to.

Bertie knows how deep the anger runs. Martin Brady, one of the most hard-working and respected of backbench TDs, got an especially rough time on Monday and found himself shouldering the blame for years of government inaction and prevarication. Fianna Fail wanted it both ways on this one and ended up paying the price.

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The Willie O'Dea case is little more than a distraction. Willie did what Willie does, and normally it would have ended there but for the presence of a few tape recorders. The Opposition reaction was predictable, but Mary Harney's reprimand did pack a certain punch - especially given the convention that yellow cards are usually administered by the relevant party leader. Willie won't go. It's not Bertie's way, nor is it Willie's.

The one certainty is that there is no easy answer. The public want more taxis, and taxi-drivers with a bit of manners on them. They are not likely to get either in the near future.

The taxi-men have been deluded by their leaders and political friends into believing they can behave as they please, that negotiation is about who shouts loudest and that intimidation pays. They are learning the hard way that they have been living in a time warp and that they have gone exactly the wrong way about having their genuine fears and grievances addressed.

Given that fears and expectations have been raised beyond any level of reason, it is difficult to see what the Government can do to calm the situation, especially since the PDs have invested the issue with ideological rectitude. Mary Harney spotted an opening, grabbed the ball and went for the line. Her opponents may say she sat inactive on the issue for three years until Mr Justice Roderick Murphy gave her the opportunity, but then that's life and the PDs have done everything in their power to latch on to the issue.

And in Bobby Molloy they had just the right enforcer. Bobby will never win the Charmer of the Year Award, and once embroiled in controversy, he has a capacity to cut people off at the knees which few in here can equal. Even though Bobby was a founding PD member, he has never quite lost that Politburo mindset which characterised Fianna Fail politicians in the old Blaney/Boland days.

The general feeling was that in Bobby the taxi-men had met their match. Certainly very little was offered on Tuesday night and yet the taxi leaders emerged relatively mollified. Did they know more than they were saying or were they into damage limitation?

But then on Thursday came news of Bobby's Mexican jaunt. Clearly John Bruton had done his homework - or somebody in the Whip's Office had - as he left the Government benches reeling with the news that at this crucial moment in a highly volatile situation, Bobby was off to Mexico City.

It was hardly a reassuring message, but even if Bobby and Bertie were at home, there would be no certainty any real progress could be made. The issues are deep and are at once simple and complex. The best route might well be to soldier on as best we can until Christmas - no new taxis are going to come now anyway - and to hope the intervening period can see a calm look being taken in the hope of a reasonable compromise.

This would be in the best interests of the taxi-drivers. But Drapier doubts if the word "compromise" figures very largely in their thinking.

Meanwhile, the place was awash all week with the pre-Budget submissions and submitters. By the time Charlie McCreevy sits down to put the finishing touches to next week's Budget, virtually every group in the State will have made its special plea. Some came on their own, others accompanied by high-pressure PR consultants - whatever happened to Labour's Register of Lobbyists Bill? The question occupying the minds of most Government supporters was whether Charlie would once again make a sow's ear out of a silk purse or deliver them the much-needed boost they need to get out of the polling doldrums.

At least hopes of salvaging the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness look better, but for Charlie it's make or break time. He has been the lightning conductor for much of the Government's unpopularity, being blamed for last year's Budget fiasco, the O'Flaherty affair, the row with the credit unions and was the target of much criticism on the ground in the Tipperary by-election.

The strange thing is that Charlie enjoys a much higher reputation within Leinster House than outside. People on all sides see him as straight, honourable and able, somebody with the courage of his convictions and the ability to translate them into reality. The only real question mark is over his judgment and his alleged inability to listen. Certainly nobody ever accuses him of diffidence, or lack of conviction, but this time the stakes are high and even though the upcoming Budget is an all-Cabinet affair with full consultation, not to mention the added advice of Una Claffey, if things go wrong only one person will be blamed and Charlie knows that.

Finally this week, a word about Paddy Donegan. Anybody who knew Paddy liked him. He was straightforward and honest. He was a genuine friend, loyal to his party and to his beliefs and always good company to be in. Paddy Donegan did many good turns along the way and it will be for these he will be remembered as much as for any of his more colourful quotes. To Olivia and his family our deepest sympathy.