Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary may have entered the most dangerous phase of his career, writes Siobhán Creaton , Finance Correspondent.
Michael O'Leary is irritating. It's official. Belgian's European Commissioner, Philippe Busquin, says so, and insists he is not the only commissioner who is allergic to the mere mention of the name of Ryanair's arrogant chief.
Next week the long-suffering eurocrats, the butt of O'Leary's invective and insults for many months, may have the last laugh. They are expected to deliver a bruising ruling for Ryanair that could force the company to repay millions of euro it received in illegal state aid at Belgian's Charleroi Airport and to renegotiate deals at other airports. There are many who believe O'Leary's foul-mouthed bullying tactics have backfired badly in Brussels and have only served to embolden the commissioners to get tough with the cheeky low-fares airline. And he knows it.
Speaking to analysts this week, O'Leary said: "Undoubtedly there are people I irritate, who find me feisty and confrontational. Some people will believe that my handling of the case has caused this, and I would find it hard to disagree with elements. If that is the case, then the ultimate responsibility rests with me."
He says it is up to Ryanair's board and shareholders to decide whether he should be forced to fall on his sword for his petulance. But they have little appetite for admonishing him, and he knows that too.
"He hasn't done the airline any favours by slagging the eurocrats but they are i-dotty and t-crossy people who are more concerned with sticking to the rules rather than carrying out a vendetta. There is no serious appetite for him to go," one investor said this week.
Indeed, it would be a disaster for Ryanair at this stage if he were to put on his wellingtons and go farming in Mullingar. His abrasive style seems to have left him with few friends to do battle for him in Brussels though. Ireland's European Commissioner, David Byrne, has been fighting Ryanair's corner and the Minister for Transport, Seamus Brennan, only came to his aid this week.
Some sources, however, have suggested that the Government hasn't "lifted a finger" to help Ryanair's cause, and again this may have something to do with O'Leary's public ridiculing of the Taoiseach and other politicians.
His "dithering Bertie" campaign and his insistence on referring to Ahern as "the prime minister" may have touched a nerve. O'Leary has said he uses the term "prime minister" because he knows it is insulting and, more importantly, to ensure that the British media know who he is attacking. When he was asked if Tony Blair should brace himself for a similar onslaught, he laughed.
"I choose my targets. Bertie is ineffectual; Tony Blair took out Saddam," he replied.
It must have been humiliating for O'Leary to watch Ryanair's shares crash on Wednesday. It was an awful day for the Irish airline. Even the redoubtable chief executive looked winded.
When the markets opened, Europe's biggest low-fares airline was worth €5 billion; by close of business it had shrunk to €3.6 billion. Rumblings about a harsh ruling from Brussels had affected the shares, but the situation really slipped from O'Leary's control when he announced that Ryanair's fares had become too cheap and were affecting its profits. More surprisingly, he seemed to be at a loss to explain how he had let it happen.
"There is a lot of stupid competition out there losing money. We are not reducing our low fares because we are a charity. There is some below-cost selling - Easyjet, British Airways, everyone is at it. It's part of the land-grab going on in Europe and we will always be lower than anyone else," he explained.
It was his inability to predict just how long it would take Ryanair to win some significant battles that rattled shareholders. He has always sold the Ryanair story with great conviction. When he meets investors they are impressed by his track record, his superb management of the airline, and he can convince them that Ryanair is virtually invincible.
He has said, famously, that there are only three reasons why Ryanair would fail: "Nuclear war in Europe, a major accident, or believing our own bullshit."
This week, it was the latter that was most causing concern.
"I can't see the O'Leary 'kung fu' act working this time. Ryanair has been scratched for the first time. O'Leary wasn't impressive. He wasn't able to speak with as much conviction as he has in the past," one analyst said.
O'Leary is a master at whipping up a controversy to deflect attention away from his real trouble and he was quick to suggest that the European Commission would destroy all low-cost airlines and raise the price of air travel for consumers. He even warned that Ryanair's low-fares arch-rival, Easyjet, might be finding the going tough.
"I think you'll see Easyjet change its tone over the next few days. They are not the brightest sandwiches in the picnic-basket," he suggested.
It would be fair to say he is getting a dose of his own medicine. The Daily Mirror summed up Wednesday's meltdown under the headline "Cryanair". Easyjet's spokesman was clearly enjoying watching O'Leary squirm and said his comments about the airline were "wonderful" coming from someone who had just issued a profits warning. There would have been a few belly laughs at British Airways too, the airline he famously branded "expensive b*****ds". O'Leary's wounded enemies are steadily emerging from the long grass and will continue to wound Ryanair - but few of them will be underestimating their target.
Even at the end of a bad week, Ryanair is still one of the world's most profitable airlines. Its profit margins and its lean cost structure are the envy of its competitors. It also has a cash pile of more than €1 billion to cushion the blows.
But O'Leary has pledged to wield the axe even further at Ryanair, paring its already awesomely low costs closer to the bone.
This means any extra costs will be passed directly on to the consumer. Yesterday, Ryanair said it would levy another 73 cent on every ticket sold to pay for the cost of providing wheelchairs to disabled customers, after losing a landmark court case in London. This annoyed yet another politician, with Senator Pascal Mooney saying the levy was a public relations disaster.
Motormouth O'Leary may well have entered the most dangerous phase of his career. This week he told journalists he prefers it that way.
"This is the most fun you can have without taking your clothes off," he said. "It is much more fun when the world is falling apart than when things are boring and going well."
The Ryanair Story, by Siobhán Creaton, will be published by Aurum Press in Britain and Ireland in May