TURKEY: After five hours of talks yesterday, Turkey's civilian leaders and military top brass announced they had reached agreement on the need to restart talks aimed at breaking the 30-year diplomatic deadlock between Turks and Greeks on the divided island of Cyprus, writes Nicholas Birch in Istanbul
A statement published after the monthly National Security Council meeting confirmed Turkey's intention to support "the rapid resumption of talks" aimed at finding "a balanced solution based on the [United Nations-sponsored] Annan Plan and the island's realities".
The decision comes not a moment too soon. Failure to resolve the dispute before the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot side enters the European Union this May could seriously reduce Turkey's hopes of getting an accession date from Brussels this December.
Under increasing international pressure in recent months to soften its tone, the Turkish Council's announcement comes as no surprise. Turkey's staunchly pro-European Prime Minister, Mr Tayyip Erdogan, is due to meet UN Secretary General Mr Kofi Annan today in Switzerland, and he must be able to present evidence that Turkey sincerely supports compromise.
Yet, though the new conciliatory approach is undoubtedly a victory for Turkey's civilian leaders over military hawks, the wording of the press statement leaves cause for concern.
Turkey's generals are known to have serious reservations about the Annan Plan's suggestion that parts of the Turkish Cypriot-controlled north be handed back to the Greeks. The statement's allusion to "the island's realities" appears to be a reference to this.
The fear among Turkish supporters of the plan is that Mr Annan may consider Turkey's new position too far from his own to warrant restarting negotiations. He is known to have been angered in 2002 when 18 months of talks collapsed after Turkish Cyprus' nationalist negotiator, Mr Rauf Denktas, declared them "dead".
"Annan's attitude is that the broad lines of his plan should remain untouched", says Mr Sami Kohen, foreign policy columnist for centrist daily Milliyet. "We have no details yet, but I suspect today's compromise may not be enough for him."
Ultimately, his decision may depend on the White House, where Mr Erdogan is due to meet President George Bush early next week. Supportive of Turkey's EU accession hopes, the US administration has been increasingly outspoken in its calls for an end to the Cyprus impasse. Observers believe Washington may lobby the UN to resume talks despite its misgivings.
But the most serious obstacle facing supporters of a solution in Ankara could well turn out to be public opinion within Turkey.
Comments made last week by a senior Turkish general, who described those seeking a compromise as "traitors", may seem comic in their excess. But, as a poll published six weeks ago in the liberal daily Radikal shows, such opinions are shared by many ordinary Turks.
Asked whether they would vote yes to the EU in a referendum, 80 per cent of the respondents said yes. But only 34 per cent believed Turkey should change its traditional policy on Cyprus in order to get a date from Brussels.
Though continued flexibility from Turkey is vital if the deadlock on Cyprus is to be broken, even minor concessions risk alienating the government's largely conservative, nationalistic support base.
"The Erdogan administration has revolutionised Turkey's inflexible Cyprus policy," said Radikal's Cyprus expert Mr Erdal Guven. "But it should have done much, much more to prepare the public."
Rauf Denktas is still the Turkish Cypriots' chief negotiator and, now they are assured of joining Europe in May, the Greek side has little incentive to compromise."