CYPRUS: The big push is on for a Cyprus settlement by the time the island joins the EU on May 1st. Michael Jansen in Nicosia examines the prospects.
Turkey's National Security Council is to decide today whether to resume negotiations on the plan for a reunification of Cyprus put forward by UN Secretary General Mr Kofi Annan in 2002. The plan would see the island reunified in a bizonal, bicommunal federation.
Dr Kypros Chrysostomides, spokesman for the Greek Cypriot community, told The Irish Times: "We are ready to resume negotiations on the Annan plan (and have) communicated this position to all concerned. We expect that international pressure will mount so that Turkey will change its stance ... We expect a concrete change of policy which is not yet there."
Talks between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots broke down last March. The Cyprus President, Mr Tassos Papadopoulos, accepted the Annan plan with modifications.
Although a majority of Turkish Cypriots favour the plan, their leader, Mr Rauf Denktash, called it "unacceptable".
Over the last 10 months, Turkey issued a series of conflicting statements. The politico-military establishment, which backs Mr Denktash, prevaricated. Last week, however, he said the Annan plan was "still on the table. We will sit down and discuss it." But he added that it must be in an "acceptable state".
By contrast, the moderate Islamist premier, Mr Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said negotiations should begin. He recently warned: "As long as this problem is dragging on, it is hurting both northern Cyprus and Turkey ... it is a must for us to reach a solution."
A concerted US-EU push behind the UN plan began late last month when President Bush sent letters to the Greek Prime Minister, Mr Costas Simitis, Mr Erdogan and Mr Papadopoulos. Mr Bush urged Greek and Turkish Cypriots "to return to the negotiating table immediately and resume discussion in good faith on the basis" of the Annan plan.
Last week, during the first visit to Turkey by a European Commission president, Mr Romano Prodi said a Cyprus deal was not a "precondition" for giving Ankara a date for the start of accession talks, but it would "greatly help Turkey's aspirations".
Gen Ilker Basbug, deputy commander of Turkey's armed forces, replied, "We aim for a solution in Cyprus before May 1st, but a lasting solution takes a long time and is difficult." He said Ankara might suggest "something else", a Turkish counter-proposal.
On Wednesday Mr Thomas Weston, the US State Department co-ordinator for Cyprus, arrived in Ankara on an unscheduled visit, ahead of today's key National Security Council meeting. Following an earlier trip this month he said a settlement could be reached by May 1st if the two sides "showed resolve".
Mr Weston's visit coincided with a statement by Mr Annan that he is prepared to restart talks if the two sides are ready "to go forward and settle their differences". He insists that they must negotiate seriously, allow him to put forward proposals on issues where there is no agreement, set a deadline for a deal, and fix a date for separate referendums on the settlement package.
Dr Chrysostomides said the Greek Cypriots accept Mr Annan's demands. He also said they would not "abandon" the search for a solution after May 1st" even if Turkey does not change its position.
Turkey's own proposal, rumoured to be in the works for some weeks, may emerge from today's meeting in time for Mr Erdogan's encounter with Mr Annan on Saturday at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland and Mr Erdogan's discussions with Mr Bush at the White House on the 28th.
If Ankara drops its demand for a separate Turkish Cypriot state in the north, occupied by Turkey in 1974, and accepts the Annan plan, the Cyprus problem could be resolved in the coming months, removing a serious obstacle to Turkey's EU candidacy.
If not, the island will enter the EU as a geographic whole but with the application of the acquis communautaire suspended in the north, since this area will remain outside the control of the recognised government in the Greek Cypriot majority south.
If this happens, the EU summit in December could indefinitely postpone setting a date for Turkey's accession talks.