If threatened strikes by the Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) and Writer's Guild go ahead, the consensus is they are unlikely to have any significant short-term effect on film and television production in Ireland.
The Irish Film Board says that as it concentrates on indigenous productions, a strike would not have a major impact on its work. Likewise, major Irish producers say they have anticipated a strike and have made contingency plans, concentrating instead on native and European-backed work for the period ahead.
Speculation there would be a bonanza for the Irish industry as US companies relocated productions to Europe is unfounded. Irish producers say they would not be willing to strike-break. As one producer put it: "we don't want to anger the Screen Actor's Guild or the American industry. We do a lot of business with them".
Meanwhile, Irish Actor's Equity says it will encourage "total solidarity" in the event of a strike. "It would be a matter for our executive council if any of our members worked on a run-away production," says Gerry Browne, general secretary of the actor's union.
As strike restrictions will apply to all US-backed productions, even those shot overseas, it seems big US productions will be staying away from Ireland in any case. With no US productions to work on, the question of crossing the strike line is unlikely to arise for Irish actors (and writers), despite Equity warnings.
A strike situation would effectively put US film and television production on ice.
Kevin Moriarty, managing director of Ardmore Studios in Bray, Co Wicklow, warns that if both strikes occur and go on for over six months, "it could have a significant effect". "It would be very difficult to maintain viability for Ardmore if the strikes went on long."
The feeling in the industry seems to be that while contingency plans may mean business as usual in the short-term, prolonged SAG and Writer's Guild strikes would have long-term and serious consequences for the industry here.