UGANDA: With each mother typically giving birth to seven children, the country's exploding populace is foiling attempts aimed at ending poverty, writes Xan Rice in Kampala
There are 27.7 million people in Uganda. But by 2025 the population will almost double to 56 million. In 44 years, its population will have grown by nearly as much as that of China.
"You look at these numbers and think 'that's impossible'," said Carl Haub, senior demographer at the US-based Population Reference Bureau, whose latest global projections show Uganda has the fastest-growing population in the world.
Midway through the 21st century, Uganda will be the world's 12th most populous country, with 130 million people - more than Russia or Japan.
Startling as they are, the projections are feasible, and a glance at some of the variables shows why.
A typical Ugandan woman gives birth to seven children - an extraordinarily high fertility rate that has remained largely unchanged for more than 30 years. Half the population is under-15, and will soon move into childbearing age. Fewer than one in five married women has access to contraception.
Taken together, the factors point to a population explosion that has demographers and family planning experts warning that efforts to cut poverty are doomed unless urgent measures are taken. Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, the population is expanding so quickly that the demographic map of the earth is changing.
In the rest of world, including developing nations in Asia and South America, fertility rates have steadily declined to an average of 2.3 children to each mother. Most will experience only modest population growth in coming decades.
Some countries, particularly in eastern Europe, will see their numbers decline.
But, by 2050, Chad, Mali, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Niger, Burundi and Malawi - all among the poorest nations in the world - are projected to triple in population size. Nigeria will have become the world's fourth most populous country.
The Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia will have vaulted into the top 10 for the first time. Nearly a quarter of the world's population will come from Africa - up from one in seven today.
"What's happening is alarming and depressing," said Jotham Musinguzi, director of the population secretariat in Uganda's ministry of finance, pointing out the clear correlation between high fertility levels and poverty. "Are we really going to be able to give these extra people jobs, homes, healthcare and education?"
Southern Africa's population is expected to remain stable, thanks to sustained efforts to cut fertility rates, although Aids-related deaths are also a factor. In 1978, Uganda's neighbour Kenya had the world's highest fertility rate - more than eight children per mother. The government made family planning a national priority and, by the mid-1990s, the figure was less than five.
But a number of African leaders, including Uganda's president, Yoweri Museveni, believe that their countries are underpopulated, and that a bigger workforce will boost their economic prospects. In a speech to MPs in July, Mr Museveni said: "I am not one of those worried about the 'population explosion'. This is a great resource."
Studies across Africa have shown the desire for large families remains powerful. In Nigeria, a survey revealed just 4 per cent of women with two children wanted no more. Part of the reason is cultural, with bigger families a sign of security. It is also because of fears of infant mortality.
Steven Sinding, director general of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, said the world had declared premature victory in the battle to cut fertility rates. Curbing population growth is not one of the UN's Millennium Development Goals, which aim to halve poverty by 2015, and barely features in the Commission for Africa report championed by Tony Blair.
Cost is not the problem in Uganda, he explained: a three-month supply of birth control pills costs 22 cent; condoms are free. The problem is access - in most parts of Uganda, clinics simply do not exist.