The British economy should enjoy a strong upturn in the final quarter of this year and will strengthen further in 2002, an economic index projecting future activity showed today.
The so-called "leading indicator", compiled by NTC Research, recorded its fifth successive monthly rise in April to reach 101.92, from a downwardly revised 100.84 in March.
The latest increase was brought about by stronger positive contributions from five of the nine constituents of the index - consumer confidence, short term interest rates, unfilled job vacancies, new car registartions and broad M4 money supply.
Negative contributions came from new housing starts and share prices among others.
NTC said the data pointed to a clear upward turning point in the British business cycle during the final quarter of 2001... and that economic growth will continue to strengthen into 2002.
NTC also said its "coincident indicator" which monitors the current position of the British business cycle, fell for the 14th consecutive month in March to signal a further easing of economic growth.
It said both indicators had successfully predicted the trend in the latest official economic growth figures, which showed the annual rate slowing to 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2001 from 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.