The Bank of England appears set to raise interest rates this week by a quarter percentage point for the fifth time since November to cool a hot British economy.
Economists said that with house prices jumping 2.1 per cent last month, according to the Nationwide building society, and consumers borrowing at a record pace - the debt mountain hit a trillion pounds in June - another hike is a sure bet.
All but one of 45 economists polled by Reuters last week predicted a move up to 4.75 per cent when the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee finishes its two-day meeting this Thursday.
Since then news that manufacturing is powering ahead at its fastest pace in a decade has spurred talk that the MPC will break precedent and raise rates by a half-point - as advocated by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.
That still seems unlikely. Inflation remains below the MPC's 2 per cent target and one industry survey on Tuesday showed retail sales growth slowing sharply after a heady June.
Anecdotal reports have suggested the housing market may be coming off the boil.
"The MPC is caught between a rock and a hard place. Does it choose the cautious or the clobber option?" said Mr Graeme Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors.
"We think the Bank of England will proceed with a cautious quarter point interest rate rise, but the case for a half point increase will undoubtedly need to be discussed".
BoE chief economist Mr Charlie Bean last week appeared to rule out a half-point move. The MPC member said there was no good evidence to believe one big move in rates was better than two smaller ones.
Still, some members of the MPC will be wondering whether a bigger hike now might mean that rates don't need to go up as much in the future.
But equally, aggressive monetary tightening now might shock heavily-indebted consumers and cause a sharper-than-necessary retrenchment. Policymakers are getting increasingly worried that house prices could crash and take the whole economy with them.
"The only issue is how fast rates should rise," said Mr George Buckley, UK economist at Deutsche Bank