A referendum on British membership of the euro can be won during the lifetime of this parliament if the British government immediately begins a campaign to win over public opinion, an independent think-tank says today.
Winning the Euro Referendum, a pamphlet published by the Foreign Policy Centre, whose patron is the Prime Minister, Mr Blair, argues the British public is better described as "confused" about the single currency rather than "adamantly opposed" to it.
It says public opinion, which is 70 per cent opposed to membership of the euro, is shallow and "easily persuadable" and that significant shifts in attitude towards the euro can occur within a relatively short period of time. Senior figures from British business, advertising and education, including Mr Chris Powell, Labour's former head of advertising and the broadcaster, Ms Clare Rayner, contributed to the pamphlet.
It is likely to be seized upon by pro-Europeans within the Labour government, including the former foreign secretary, Mr Robin Cook, who want the prime minister to declare as soon as possible when the five economic tests, before recommendation of membership will be tested in a referendum, have been met.
The pamphlet argues that the campaign to shift public opinion in favour of the euro will not be successful unless it is supported by a strong "patriotic and political case", because most people who are against the euro believe a single currency leads to loss of national identity.
Bellicose statements which demand that Europe must reform risk further strengthening negative perceptions about the European Union and should end. Instead, the government must outline European successes such as German schools, French public transport and hi-tech industries in Finland. A high-profile figure of "unimpeachable integrity", such as the former newsreader, Sir Trevor McDonald, should be asked to lead a public information campaign about the euro.
Mr Tom Arbuthnott, Europe Programme Researcher at the Foreign Policy Centre and one of the editors of the pamphlet, says: "Despite all the polls which newspapers run on support for the single currency, there is very little attempt to get behind the headline figures and analyse what motivates public opinion. Our analysis of public opinion proves that a referendum can be won. But it will depend on pro-Europeans making the case." The pro-euro camp in Britain can also learn important lessons from Ireland's referendum on the Nice Treaty, Mr Arbuthnott says. He suggests that the Yes camp was damaged by the appearance of cynicism because the Nice campaign lasted only four weeks, giving the impression that debate did not matter. The arguments of the Yes campaign in Ireland were "one dimensional, extolling the benefits and moral imperative" of enlargement, while the arguments of the No camp were "multi-faceted, pointing to the deleterious effects that Nice itself would have on Ireland's sovereignty, neutrality and morals".