The UK, the largest export market for Irish beef, is expected to cut back on imports by as much as 6 per cent later this year, An Bord Bia has warned.
Last year, the British market took nearly 50 per cent of Irish beef exports, almost 265,000 tonnes.
An Bord Bia's Market Monitor newsletter reported this weekend that there was a 2 per cent increase in British beef consumption in the first quarter of the year. This trend is expected to continue for the rest of the year leading to a marginal rise in consumption to 1.03 million tonnes.
"However, this increase will not be sufficient to offset higher domestic production. As a result, UK beef imports are forecast to fall by 4 per cent to 310,000 tonnes," said the newsletter.
"Imports during the first half are expected to be broadly similar to 2003, while during the second half a decline of 6 per cent on the same period last year is expected," it continued. Ireland continues to be the principal import supplier to the UK, accounting for over 60 per cent of chilled/frozen imports.
"Any decline in the UK import requirement will affect the level of Irish exports to the market," the report warned.
However, with over one third of our exports now sold direct to UK retailers, Irish beef is better positioned to maintain sales, the report added.
"Nonetheless, Irish exports volume are likely to come under some pressure as UK cattle supplies rise, although our market share is expected to be maintained," it said. It said the return of OTM (over thirty month) beef to the UK food chain has been slower then anticipated and it is now expected to be well into 2005 before this beef becomes available.
This will leave UK beef imports running at relatively strong levels for the remainder of 2004 and into 2005, even allowing for the short term rise in UK beef supplies towards the end of the year.
Imports of fresh/chilled Brazilian beef into the EU increased by 18 per cent in the first four months of this year, An Bord Bia, has reported.
Beef exports from Brazil, which are emerging as a serious challenge to Irish exports, grew by 16 per cent overall to just under 300,000 tonnes, in the four months under review
"Exports of fresh/chilled beef were 23 per cent higher at almost 55,000 tonnes, while frozen beef exports increased by 19 per cent to 192,000 tonnes. Processed beef exports were broadly similar to last year at 52,000 tonnes," said the report.