Unionist challenge to Mitchell's authority certain to be first serious hurdle for talks to surmount

SENATOR George Mitchell will carry a metaphorical banner of pragmatism and reason to the gathering on the hill near Stormont …

SENATOR George Mitchell will carry a metaphorical banner of pragmatism and reason to the gathering on the hill near Stormont today. But this is not the EU Council of Ministers, so there will be no other flags on the table, we assume, to cause arguments.

Nonetheless, demarcation disputes will immediately become the stuff of this first plenary session of the so called all party negotiations - now more appropriately titled multi party talks, because of the probable absence of Sinn Fein.

It will be many days, and perhaps even months, before the participants advance to the process of compromise and barter which will be necessary if the goal of a lasting peace settlement can become feasible.

The mettle of Senator Mitchell will be severely tested in coping with the initial onslaught of the unionist parties. They will argue that he has been imposed in the role of independent chairman, and this challenge to his authority will form the first serious hurdle which the talks must surmount.

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Assuming - and it is a large assumption - that order can be preserved in this debate and that the issue can be disposed of, the unionist parties will, by their stated intentions, begin a battle of attrition against the procedural arrangements set out by the two governments.

Their chief weapon will be the declared aspiration of the governments that the talks shall progress by consensus. On this basis, the unionist strategy will be to unstitch, bit by bit, the procedural plans set out by the governments and to insist that every detail be debated and agreed individually before any real order of business can be tackled.

Apart from the appointment of Senator Mitchell, the governments' procedural outline has indeed been carefully couched in the form of proposals, described as "how we envisage business proceeding".

The key objective of the opening session will be to secure a clear endorsement of Senator Mitchell's authority and role. It may not get beyond that today, but if it does, the Mitchell report itself will then become the central topic.

After the opening remarks by the prime ministers, Senator Mitchell and the party leaders, the participants will all, in turn, be asked to make a formal declaration of their parties' total and absolute commitment to the Mitchell principles.

On the stated positions of the parties, this may not give rise to any problems. But the chairman must then proceed, in the governments' scheme of things, "to satisfy himself that there are clear indications of good intent on the part of all participants to work constructively and in good faith to secure the implementation of all aspects of the Mitchell report".

Here it can be predicted that an intense wrangle will ensue, for the unionist groupings are by no means unanimously committed to the overall report of the International Body (the Mitchell Report), and a number of key aspects of it are open to disputes concerning interpretation.

The DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, confirmed this yesterday when he declared: "My party has not signed up to the Mitchell Report - we have signed up to the Mitchell principles."

Specifically, the DUP will fiercely resist the Mitchell Report formula of addressing decommissioning in parallel with the political talks.

They will press their demand for prior decommissioning, and they are likely to be joined in this by Mr Robert McCartney's UK Unionist Party, with at least moral support from the UUP's Mr David Trimble.

There are certain fallback recourses open to the chairman at that stage, but the legitimacy even of these may also be challenged.

The principal option, which will almost certainly have to be exercised early and often, will be to refer such disputes to the "Business Committee".

This committee, to be appointed early in the course of the plenary session, will be composed of one representative of each of the parties, with representatives also of the two governments, and with Gen de Chastelain as chairman.

It may be confidently predicted that this committee - which has the merit of being of more manageable size than the full plenary session - will have the most onerous, sensitive and burdensome workload of all during the early months of the talks. Its role will be vital to clinching every step in the overall process.

If and when, the proceedings progress to setting up the talks or negotiations in the three separate strands, the chairmen in each strand will have some other powers to ensure order (assuming, of course, that those powers are agreed by all).

Any negotiating team may request an adjournment of up to 10 minutes at a time "and the chairman shall refuse such requests only if they are made with unreasonable frequency".

Moreover, if a delegation withdraws temporarily or permanently from any aspect of the negotiations, it is proposed "the chairman will be free to proceed with business with the remaining participants, notwithstanding such withdrawal".

The central basis for overall progress is the concept of "sufficient consensus", and the two governments have come up with a clever method (in theory) for establishing this, using the results of the recent election.

A proposal may be deemed to have "sufficient consensus" if the chairman is satisfied that it is supported by parties "which, taken together, obtained a clear majority of the valid poll and which between them represent a clear majority in both the unionist and nationalist communities in Northern Ireland respectively".

There is a recipe here for the intensive use of calculators and perhaps for electoral style "recounts".

The two governments draft procedures envisaged the opening session also addressing the question of a comprehensive agenda for talks - one of the most sensitive issues of all.

But there is so much potential for wrangling and division over prior procedural points that there seems very little prospect that the gathering will get anywhere near that stage today.

Inevitably, the focus will be on those who indulge in "grandstanding" tactics. Sinn Fein is expected to present all 17 of its elected delegates at the gates of the talks building, compelling their ritual exclusion in front of television cameras from around the world. The DUP will mount some form of dramatic process inside the building - and will probably collect a second media "bite" on emerging.

Whether Senator Mitchell and his colleagues can impose order on the potential chaos, and preserve some coherent and purposeful thread to be built upon at subsequent meeting, is very much - an open question.

Outside the barbed wire, a scattering of Portacabins have been placed for the press, which will be permitted to view the opening ceremonies on television monitors only. Otherwise, the media will be relying on post facto briefings, leaks, whispers and the general demeanour of those leaving the venue.

This may prove to be a serious drawback for Senator Mitchell - and his colleagues. Their best opportunity of keeping order and demonstrating evenhandedness could be argued to lie in full disclosure - allowing the world to judge their impartiality and the behaviour of those they are trying to shepherd along the pathway to peace.

But it has been decided by the governments that the talks shall take place in private, unless all parties agree otherwise. If there is ranting, abuse, obduracy and obstruction, the description of it will have to be garnered second and third hand.

But the general public in the North - which has repeatedly urged in opinion polls and surveys that all the parties should get down to these talks - may sigh in relief that they will be spared the familiar unedifying spectacle of their political representatives in full combative spate.