Unionists could be in a minority in the Assembly within four years, according to a document circulating inside the Ulster Unionist Party. The paper, drawn up a party researcher, says unionists might eventually be grateful there is mandatory power-sharing within the body.
It was written by Mr Alex Kane, a UUP researcher, and has been given to Mr David Trimble and other party figures. However, the UUP yesterday stressed that it was not an official document and had not been presented to the party officer team or the executive committee.
It contains a breakdown of election performances over 20 years, until last year, and warns that both the UUP and the general unionist vote could be in trouble.
It says that while the unionist vote is decreasing, support for nationalist parties is rising. It also warns of the increasing electoral threat of the DUP. The document says that the UUP average of just 22 per cent in council, Assembly and European elections is worrying.
"If this trend continues, we will be lucky to poll 100,000 votes in the 2001 local government elections. Also, if the DUP continues to challenge us in an increasing number of Westminster seats, then Strangford, South Antrim, North Belfast, South Belfast, East Londonderry and Upper Bann could be vulnerable."
The document, part of which was printed in yesterday's News Letter, also warns that nationalist parties could outpoll unionist parties within a decade. "In fact, we may be grateful for mandatory power-sharing," it adds.
It says that only 58 of the 108 current Assembly members are unionists and that if the unionist vote continues to decline, a situation where unionists are in a minority cannot be ruled out after the next Assembly election in 2004-2005.
A UUP spokesman yesterday said: "This document was prepared by a party researcher and is his own personal views. It was given to a number of people, including David Trimble, but it has not been put before party officers or the executive committee."